区域物流—经济—环境系统耦合发展研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 23:07

本文关键词： 物流区域物流-经济-环境系统耦合发展系统动力学协同学调控　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现代物流已经深度嵌入到区域经济的生产、流通等各个环节,并且环境对二者的影响也越来越大。三者已经进入相互促进、相互制约的动态耦合阶段。本文在这种背景之下,选择了区域物流-经济-环境系统的耦合发展作为研究对象,引入区域环境子系统,创造性的将三者看作一个复合大系统,从系统的角度来深入剖析其内部要素组成结构及关联影响。本文明确了区域物流-经济-环境系统的定义、框架结构、研究边界和系统性特征,分析了协同学理论在区域物流-经济-环境系统中的应用。以系统耦合理论分析了系统内部的三螺旋耦合过程和子系统间双螺旋耦合方式以及耦合要素、耦合节点。阐明了区域物流-经济-环境系统耦合发展的涵义,以实现区域物流、经济、环境之间的和谐发展为耦合发展目标。以耗散结构理论揭示了区域物流-经济-环境系统演化的四个阶段以及系统耦合发展的内外在条件和实现过程。通过运用系统动力学方法、借助Vens im软件,建立了区域物流-经济-环境系统的SD模型。分析了各子系统的系统结构及因果反馈关系,画出了子系统流图,并给出了主要方程式和输入条件。利用东北地区历史数据对模型进行了检验,确认了模型的有效性,并对三种耦合发展模式进行了仿真,给出了三种模式选择的条件。根据实证仿真的结果,认为区域物流优先发展模式应为目前东北地区的物流发展模式。依据协同学理论,在分析了各子系统序参量特征的基础上,科学合理的建立了评价指标体系。借鉴物理学容量耦合模型,改进了耦合度计算公式,使其值域在[0,1]之间,以便于评价。综合考虑系统耦合度和发展水平,建立了耦合发展度评价模型。将耦合发展度划分为四个阶段,用以衡量系统耦合发展的程度。选择了BP网络中的非线性自回归模型作为耦合发展度预测模型,并利用东北地区数据在Matlab上进行了编程和实现,计算和预测了2003-2020年系统的耦合发展度,同时得到区域物流发展的时滞效应为2年。构建了区域物流-经济-环境系统耦合发展的运行机制,采用非线性规划方法建立了调控模型的目标函数和约束条件,并对东北地区2018年的耦合发展度进行了调控,求解了子系统有序度和具体指标的调控目标值域。最后,根据东北区域物流-经济-环境系统的案例分析结果,提出了东北区域物流-经济-环境系统耦合发展的对策建议。区域物流-经济-环境系统的耦合发展是一项复杂的系统工程,本文的研究既对政府制定区域物流、经济以及环境发展政策具有理论指导作用,还可以为区域物流规划和区域经济建设的实践提供有力支持。因此本文的研究成果对促进区域物流-经济-环境系统的耦合发展具有重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Modern logistics has been deeply embedded in all aspects of regional economy, such as production, circulation and so on, and the impact of environment on the two has become more and more great. The three have entered the dynamic coupling stage of mutual promotion and mutual restriction. This paper chooses the coupling development of regional logistics, economy and environment system as the research object, introduces the regional environment subsystem, and creatively regards the three as a composite large system. In this paper, the definition, frame structure, boundary and systematic characteristics of regional logistics, economy and environment system are defined. The application of Synergetics theory in regional logistics, economy and environment system is analyzed. The three helix coupling process, the double helix coupling mode and the coupling elements among subsystems are analyzed based on the system coupling theory. The concept of coupling development of regional logistics, economy and environment system is expounded in order to realize regional logistics and economy. Based on the dissipative structure theory, this paper reveals the four stages of the evolution of regional logistics, economy and environment system, as well as the internal and external conditions and the realization process of the system coupling development. System dynamics method, With the help of Vens im software, the SD model of regional logistics, economy and environment system is established. The system structure and causal feedback relation of each subsystem are analyzed, and the flow diagram of the subsystem is drawn. The main equations and input conditions are given. The model is tested by historical data in Northeast China, the validity of the model is confirmed, and the three coupling development models are simulated. According to the results of empirical simulation, the priority development model of regional logistics should be the logistics development model of Northeast China. Based on the synergetic theory, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the order parameters of each subsystem. The evaluation index system is established scientifically and reasonably. By using the coupling model of physics capacity, the calculation formula of coupling degree is improved to make the value range between [0] and (1), so as to facilitate the evaluation. The coupling degree and development level of the system are considered synthetically. The coupling development degree is divided into four stages to measure the degree of coupling development. The nonlinear autoregressive model in BP network is chosen as the coupling development prediction model. Using the data of Northeast China to program and implement on Matlab, the coupling development degree of the system in 2003-2020 is calculated and forecasted. At the same time, the delay effect of regional logistics development is 2 years. The operational mechanism of the coupling development of regional logistics, economy and environment system is constructed, and the objective function and constraint conditions of the control model are established by using nonlinear programming method. The coupling development of Northeast China in 2018 is regulated, and the order degree of subsystems and the target range of specific indexes are solved. Finally, according to the results of the case study of the northeast regional logistics, economy and environment system, The countermeasures and suggestions of coupling development of regional logistics, economy and environment system in Northeast China are put forward. The coupling development of regional logistics economy environment system is a complicated system engineering. Economic and environmental development policies serve as a theoretical guide. It can also provide strong support for the practice of regional logistics planning and regional economic construction, so the research results of this paper have important practical significance to promote the coupling development of regional logistics, economy and environment system.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X2;F259.27;F127

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