东盟国家经济周期同步性分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 04:07

本文关键词： 经济周期同步性共同周期法东盟　出处：《商业研究》2015年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：经济周期是否具有同步性是区域经济合作参与国制定共同经济政策、促进区域合作纵深发展的前提。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型,并依据共同趋势与共同周期理论,对东盟主要国家的经济周期同步性进行了分析,结果表明东盟主要国家不仅在长期的经济波动方面具有共同随机发展趋势,而且其短期经济周期也是完全同步的。然而,由于经济发展战略趋同以及相对较小的经济规模,东盟各国之间的竞争性大于互补性。因此,东盟各国必须在加强内部经济联系与政策协调的同时,积极寻求与外部经济体特别是中、日、韩等东亚主要经济体的合作,从而推动东盟国家经济一体化的进程。
[Abstract]:Whether the business cycle is synchronous or not is the premise for the countries participating in regional economic cooperation to formulate common economic policies and promote the further development of regional cooperation. In this paper, a multivariable vector error correction model is established, and based on the common trend and common cycle theory, This paper analyzes the synchronism of the economic cycles of the major ASEAN countries. The results show that the major ASEAN countries not only have a common random development trend in long-term economic fluctuations, but also their short-term economic cycles are completely synchronized. As a result of the convergence of economic development strategies and the relatively small size of the economy, the competitiveness of ASEAN countries is greater than that of complementarity. Therefore, ASEAN countries must, while strengthening internal economic ties and policy coordination, To actively seek cooperation with external economies, especially China, Japan, South Korea and other major East Asian economies, so as to promote the process of economic integration of ASEAN countries.
【作者单位】：湖北科技学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：湖北科技学院博士启动基金项目,项目编号:BK1423 湖北省教育厅科学研究计划指导性项目,项目编号:B2015078 湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究青年项目,项目编号:15Q216
【分类号】：F133

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