社会经济视角下我国高速铁路建设规模分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 11:16

本文关键词： 社会经济高速铁路建设规模多元回归模型　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：自2004年《中长期铁路网规划方案》及2008年的调整方案先后颁布实施,我国高速铁路建设步入快速发展期。目前我国高速铁路运营里程已经突破万公里,稳居世界高速铁路里程榜首位。伴随着高速铁路在我国的建设进程不断推进,高速铁路作为一种新的交通方式逐步显现出巨大的技术优势而被人民逐渐接纳时,许多问题也相继暴露。目前学术界对于我国高速铁路的建设规模还没有较为全面的研究分析,如何做到使高速铁路发展规模与我国各建设区域经济实力相吻合就是一个重要的研究课题。论文研究的目的在于从社会经济视角分析“四纵四横”规划的各条客运专线与沿途城市社会经济发展水平的适应性,提出对今后高速铁路建设发展趋势有指导意义的结论,推动我国高速铁路建设与国民经济协调发展。研究过程包括了大量数据的采集和整理、统计信息的分析预测、理论支撑的说明与实践趋势的判断,最终形成书面研究成果。为了增加结论的科学性和说服力,研究过程中注意了多种分析手段的综合运用,做到了定性与定量相互配合,实证与理论相互辅助。本文首先通过研究国内外关于铁路、高速公路和城市轨道交通建设规模的理论和方法,以及各交通方式与社会经济适应性的理论的相关文献,阐述世界高速铁路的发展历程,并分析高速铁路建设与社会经济的相互影响,从社会经济角度出发总结归纳并构建了高速铁路社会经济适应性评价的指标体系。其次,以《中长期铁路网规划方案》确定的“四纵四横”路线图为依托,选择其中符合我国对高速铁路定义的32条高速铁路线路的数据作为样本数据。运用多元回归模型的方法对我国高速铁路建设规模进行了实证研究。随后通过拟合得到的多元回归模型确定所有高速铁路线路中与沿途城市社会经济发展水平适应性较好的路线,对与沿途城市社会经济发展水平适应性较为不好的线路进行了判别分析,得出在社会经济视角下“四纵四横”路线图中应该建设的高速铁路线路以及因与沿途城市当前的社会经济发展水平相对不适应而暂时不应该建设的路线。当然,这一结论的正确性仍有待实践检验。最后,结合我国国情和高速铁路目前的建设运营状况对我国高速铁路建设提出改进建议。
[Abstract]:Abstract: since 2004, the medium and long term railway network planning plan and the adjustment plan of 2008 have been promulgated and implemented, the construction of high speed railway in our country has stepped into a period of rapid development. At present, the mileage of high speed railway in our country has exceeded 10, 000 kilometers. High speed railway ranks first in the world's high-speed railway mileage list. With the continuous development of high-speed railway in China, high-speed railway, as a new mode of transportation, gradually shows huge technological advantages and is gradually accepted by the people. Many problems have been exposed one after another. At present, there is no comprehensive research and analysis on the scale of high-speed railway construction in China. How to make the development scale of high-speed railway coincide with the regional economic strength of our country is an important research topic. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the adaptability of the planned "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way from the perspective of social economy, and to put forward the conclusions of guiding significance for the development trend of high-speed railway construction in the future. The research process includes the collection and arrangement of a large amount of data, the analysis and prediction of statistical information, the explanation of theoretical support and the judgment of practice trend. In order to make the conclusion more scientific and persuasive, we pay attention to the comprehensive application of a variety of analytical methods in the course of the research, and cooperate with each other in qualitative and quantitative analysis, and complement each other in empirical and theoretical aspects. First of all, through the study of the domestic and foreign theories and methods on the construction scale of railway, expressway and urban rail transit, as well as the relevant literature on the theory of various modes of transportation and the social and economic adaptability, this paper expounds the development course of the world's high-speed railway. It also analyzes the interaction between the construction of high-speed railway and social economy, summarizes and constructs the index system of social and economic adaptability evaluation of high-speed railway from the point of view of social economy. Based on the road map of "four vertical and four horizontal" defined in the medium and long term Railway Network Planning Plan, The data of 32 high-speed railway lines in accordance with the definition of high-speed railway in China are selected as sample data. The scale of high-speed railway construction in China is studied by using the method of multiple regression model. The multivariate regression model is obtained to determine the routes of all high-speed railway lines which are more adaptable to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way. Discriminant analysis is made on the routes which have poor adaptability to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way. Get the high-speed railway line that should be built in the road map of "four vertical and four horizontal" from the social and economic angle of view, and the route that should not be constructed temporarily because of the relative inadaptability to the current level of social and economic development of the city along the way. The correctness of this conclusion still needs to be tested in practice. Finally, some suggestions for improving the construction of high-speed railway in China are put forward according to the national conditions of our country and the current construction and operation situation of high-speed railway.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F532.3

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