江苏省县域经济增长收敛的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-03-03 04:20

本文选题：县域经济　切入点：空间计量分析　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济增长收敛问题一直以来都是经济领域研究的一个热门话题。纵观国内外学者关于区域经济增长收敛问题的研究,仍有不少问题有待进一步深化：(1)目前大多数关于经济增长收敛的研究多集中在省域间、市域间或东中西等层面上,而以县域为分析单元的还很少,有待进一步研究细化,使得研究对象更接近实际。(2)现有文献关注的焦点都是经济增长的收敛性,而对经济增长收敛影响因素的研究则还未形成一个深层次的理论探讨和完整的逻辑框架。(3)已有研究考察的都是平均水平下的经济增长收敛情况,未能考察经济增长收敛情况的动态变化过程。针对上述问题,本文以新古典经济增长理论为理论基础,以县域为分析单元,研究了江苏省经济增长收敛性。采用空间计量方法对江苏省的经济收敛性进行分析,根据实证分析结果结合现实经济状况,深入探究了影响江苏省县域经济增长收敛的重要因素。在空间计量方法的基础上,本文引入了分位数回归方法,考察了不同经济增长水平下江苏省的经济增长收敛情况的动态变化过程。本文的主要研究结论包括：(1)考虑空间相关性前后,江苏省县域经济均呈现出明显的σ收敛趋势,且县域间的空间相关性对县域经济差异的缩小起到了显著的促进作用,抑制了县域经济增长的分散化。(2)从β收敛来看,考虑空间相关性后,江苏省县域经济增长存在显著的绝对β收敛和相对β收敛,并且收敛速度均有所提高。从相对β收敛模型中代表经济结构特征的控制变量对经济增长收敛的影响来看,物质资本投入、第二产业对经济增长收敛具有较强的促进作用；人力资本投入、第三产业则限制了经济增长收敛；市场开放程度、对外开放程度对经济增长收敛的作用不显著。在不同分位数水平下考察经济增长的β收敛情况,发现在低分位及高分位水平下,经济增长是呈收敛趋势的,但是在中高分位水平下,经济增长是发散的。在任何分位水平下,第二产业对经济增长收敛始终有着正面促进作用,然而第三产业、人力资本和市场化程度这三个因素却始终阻碍着经济增长收敛。在低分位水平物质资本对经济增长收敛起着促进作用,对外开放程度则阻碍了经济的增长；在更高的分位水平下,恰好相反。(3)俱乐部收敛方面,苏中不存在任何空间相关性,但仍存在俱乐部收敛；考虑空间相关性后,苏南、苏北存在俱乐部收敛,但收敛速度并无多大变化。
[Abstract]:The convergence of economic growth has always been a hot topic in the economic field. There are still many problems to be further deepened.) at present, most studies on the convergence of economic growth are concentrated on the levels of provinces, cities, east and west, and so on. However, few of them take the county area as the analytical unit, and there is still no need to further study and refine the research on the convergence of economic growth. So that the research object is closer to the reality.) the focus of the existing literature is the convergence of economic growth. However, the research on the influencing factors of economic growth convergence has not yet formed a deep theoretical discussion and a complete logical framework. The dynamic process of convergence of economic growth has not been examined. In view of the above problems, this paper takes the neoclassical economic growth theory as the theoretical basis and the county area as the analytical unit. This paper studies the convergence of economic growth in Jiangsu Province, analyzes the economic convergence of Jiangsu Province by using the spatial econometric method, and combines the results of empirical analysis with the actual economic situation. This paper probes into the important factors that influence the convergence of county economic growth in Jiangsu Province. On the basis of the spatial measurement method, the quantile regression method is introduced in this paper. This paper investigates the dynamic change process of the convergence of economic growth in Jiangsu Province under different economic growth levels. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: before and after considering spatial correlation, the county economy of Jiangsu Province shows an obvious 蟽 convergence trend. Moreover, spatial correlation among counties plays a significant role in promoting the narrowing of county economic differences, which inhibits the decentralization of county economic growth.) from the point of view of 尾 convergence, spatial correlation is considered. There are significant absolute 尾 convergence and relative 尾 convergence in county economic growth in Jiangsu Province, and the convergence rate has been improved. From the view of the influence of the control variables representing the characteristics of economic structure in the relative 尾 convergence model on the convergence of economic growth, The material capital investment, the secondary industry has the strong promotion function to the economic growth convergence, the human capital investment, the tertiary industry has restricted the economic growth convergence, the market opening degree, The effect of the degree of opening to the outside world on the convergence of economic growth is not significant. The 尾 convergence of economic growth is investigated at different quantiles, and it is found that the economic growth tends to converge at low and high quartile levels. But at the middle and high quartile level, economic growth is divergent. At any quantile level, the secondary industry has always played a positive role in promoting the convergence of economic growth. However, the tertiary industry, The three factors of human capital and degree of marketization have always hindered the convergence of economic growth. In the low quantile level material capital plays a promoting role in the convergence of economic growth and the degree of opening to the outside world has hindered the economic growth. At a higher quantile level, on the contrary, there is no spatial correlation in the case of club convergence, but there is still club convergence, considering spatial correlation, there is club convergence in the south and north of Jiangsu. But the convergence rate does not change much.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【相似文献】