铁路建设与经济增长之间的动态关系研究——以贵州省为例

发布时间：2017-12-31 03:32

本文关键词：铁路建设与经济增长之间的动态关系研究——以贵州省为例　出处：《经济问题探索》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国"十二五"期间铁路建设成绩斐然,"十三五"期间还将加大铁路建设力度。近期国务院通过了《中长期铁路网规划》,提出以铁路建设带动经济社会发展;李克强总理也在克强指数中通过铁路客运量的增加来反映宏观经济增长。但针对铁路建设与经济增长之间的动态关系问题,目前缺乏具体的定量关系研究。同时贵州近几年来经济增速居全国前三,铁路建设力度也较大。因此,本文以贵州省为例,采用向量自回归的方法,对其1995-2014年的铁路建设和地区生产总值的数据进行分析来研究铁路建设和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:铁路总里程数、铁路客运量、铁路货运量和铁路货运周转量的增加会对宏观经济的增长产生长期稳定的动态影响。因此,建议各地加大铁路建设力度,借鉴贵州经验,引导经济又好又快地增长。
[Abstract]:China's "12th Five-Year" during the railway construction achievements, "13th Five-Year" period will also increase the strength of railway construction. Recently, the State Council passed the "long-term railway network plan", put forward to promote economic and social development of railway construction; prime minister Li Keqiang in the Keqiang index by increasing the railway passenger volume to reflect the macro economic growth. But for the dynamic relationship between railway construction and economic growth, the current lack of specific quantitative relationship. At the same time, Guizhou in recent years economic growth in the country's top three, the railway construction is larger. Therefore, this paper takes Guizhou Province as an example, using the method of vector auto regression, were used to investigate the dynamic relationship between railway construction and economic the growth of 1995-2014 years of railway construction and GDP data analysis. The results showed that the total mileage of railway, railway passenger volume, rail freight and railway freight week The increase of transfer volume will have a long-term and steady dynamic impact on the growth of macroeconomy. Therefore, it is suggested that railway construction be intensified everywhere, and Guizhou's experience can be used to guide the economy to grow fast and well.

【作者单位】：贵州大学;
【基金】：贵州省软科学研究计划项目(黔科合基础[2016]1513-2号) 贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(2016ZD02) 贵州大学人文社会科学重点学科群建设项目
【分类号】：F127;F532.8
【正文快照】： 一、引言“十二五”期间,全国铁路固定资产投资完成3.58万亿元,比“十一五”多完成1.15万亿元、增长47.3%;新线投产3.05万公里,比“十一五”多完成1.59万公里、增长109%,是历史投资完成最好、投产新线最多的五年[1]。截止到2016年年底,中国铁路运营里程已经达到12.4万公里,高

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