流域内经济结构性调整对水环境质量的长短期效应分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 18:18

本文关键词：流域内经济结构性调整对水环境质量的长短期效应分析　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着流域内工业化和城镇化的深入发展,流域水环境面临的形势十分严峻,太湖流域作为我国社会经济发展最快的地区之一,其水体质量不容乐观。为了实现流域内经济、社会和环境的协调发展,本文首先基于主成份分析法确定太湖流域水质综合污染指数,以此表征流域水环境质量。在此基础上,基于ARDL模型的边限协整检验方法,利用1991—2014年的太湖流域(江苏部分)产业结构调整、人口城乡流动和政府环境规制的相关数据,从经济结构性调整视角分析其对流域水环境质量的长短期效应。实证结果表明:产业结构调整对水环境质量的长短期弹性分别为79.522和-179.283,说明流域内第二产业的长期粗放式增长会导致水质恶化,而且其影响程度并不会随着时间而自动消退。而人口城乡结构变化对水环境质量的长短期弹性分别为67.578和309.411,说明流域内人口从农村流动到城市,短期会增加用水量,加剧水质恶化,而长期造成的负面影响则会相对逐渐减弱。至于政府在流域治理方面的规制行为,由于其长短期弹性分别为-21.705和19.687,说明政府治理行为短期并不会有效改善水体质量,其管制效果并非立竿见影,往往需要等待若干年才能有初步成效,而且相比产业结构和人口城乡结构对流域水环境质量的影响程度,政府环境规制对水质的影响力度略显不足。最后基于实证分析结果,本文提出了促进改善流域水环境质量的若干政策建议,包括:优化第一产业和大力发展第三产业,促进产业结构优化调整;加大城市环境保护宣传力度,普及节水意识和管制排污行为,并扶植农业发展,实现城乡人口数量的合理流动;促进研发一些高新排污设备,继续加大政府在治理污水方面的投资,强化政府的环境规制行为等。
[Abstract]:With the further development in the basin of industrialization and urbanization, the water environment facing a very grim situation, Taihu basin is one of the social and economic development of China's fastest growing region, the water quality is not optimistic. In order to realize the coordinated development of regional economy, society and environment, based on the principal component analysis method to determine the water quality of the Taihu river basin the comprehensive pollution index, which indicates the water quality of the environment. On this basis, the cointegration test method of ARDL model based on marginal, from 1991 to 2014 in the Taihu River Basin (Jiangsu section) the adjustment of industrial structure, urban and rural population flow and the related data of government environmental regulation, from the perspective of economic structural adjustment on the short and long term effects of watershed the water quality of the environment. The empirical results show that: the adjustment of industrial structure of short and long term elasticity on water quality is 79.522 and -179.283 respectively, to illustrate the flow domain of the second stage The industry long-term extensive growth will lead to the deterioration of water quality, but its impact will not fade with time. And the automatic long-term elasticity changes the population structure on water quality were 67.578 and 309.411, indicating the population flow from rural to city, will increase the short-term water consumption, exacerbated the deterioration of water quality, negative influence while the long-term cause relatively weakened gradually. As for the action of government regulation in the Watershed Governance, due to its short and long term elasticity were -21.705 and 19.687, that government short-term behavior does not improve water quality effectively, the control effect is not immediate, often have to wait several years to have preliminary results, but compared to the industrial structure and the population structure influence on the quality of water environment, the government environmental regulation on water quality influence degree insufficient. Finally based on empirical points The results of the analysis, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions to improve the quality of water environment, including: optimizing the first industry and promote the development of the third industry, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure; strengthening the city environmental protection propaganda and popularization of water-saving awareness and control of sewage behavior, and the support of agricultural development, realize the rational flow of urban and rural population; development some high pollution equipment, continue to increase government investment in water pollution, strengthen environmental regulation of government.

【作者单位】：河海大学商学院;淮阴工学院数理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“最严格水资源管理制度约束下流域初始水权耦合配置方法研究”(批准号:41271537) 江苏省研究生创新计划项目“太湖流域经济结构性调整对水环境质量的影响研究”(批准号:2016B46714)
【分类号】：F121.3;X52
【正文快照】： 改革开放以来,流域水资源开发、利用工作取得显著成效,为流域内经济和社会发展做出了突出贡献,但同时,水资源短缺、水污染严重等问题亦十分突出。太湖流域是我国社会经济发展最快的地区之一,其水体富营养化程度十分严重[1],据《太湖流域水资源公报》显示,2015年度太湖流域河流

【相似文献】