服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 08:22

本文关键词：服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响分析　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：服务业是近年来世界上增长最快的产业,被誉为产业和市场发展的“黏合剂”。作为衡量区域经济繁荣程度的重要标志之一,服务业发展也逐渐受到各国重视,特别是步入21世纪后,在全球范围内,服务业外商直接投资快速增长,以服务业FDI为核心的外商直接投资,正逐步成长为我国和世界经济体系中调整升级产业结构和促进区域经济繁荣的重要力量,且日益深刻地改变着世界各国经济、产业、技术的发展模式。 2012年中国实际使用外资(FDI)金额1117.2亿美元,连续20年成为利用外资最多的发展中国家。正是由于长期坚持引进外资,我国逐步实现了农业大国向工业大国的转变。在很长一段时期,制造业FDI一直是我国外资引入领域的重点。2001年随着正式加入世贸组织,我国迈出了逐渐开放服务市场的步伐,服务业FDI也开始快速成长起来,成为我国FDI的重要组成部分,外商直接投资在服务领域的金额日益增多,由1997年的119亿美元左右,增长到2012年的572亿美元,15年时间里增长了近5倍。2011年我国服务业FDI比重占到了实际利用外资总额的50%以上,服务业FDI整体比重首次超过制造业。与此同时,改革开放30多年来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,实现了多年的两位数发展,人民生活有了较大改善,国内生产总值2013年达到了56.9万亿元,贸易进出口总额达到了4万亿美元,位居全球第一。但辉煌的总量并未掩盖经济结构的日益失衡,传统资源消耗的高能低产依旧未彻底改变,中国作为一个发展中的大国,工业化已经步入到中后期,但依旧有大量劳动力滞留于传统产业；大工业发展虽然总量上较为突出,但内部结构依旧较为单一,科技含量相对于西方发达国家也存在一定差距；在新兴服务业领域,由于起步较晚,伴随着劳动力成本日益上升、人口红利快速削减,矛盾也日益突出。只有实现国内产业结构的升级转变,只有彻底的调整经济发展方式,才能实现未来国家的可持续性增长。由于外资往往拥有较为先进的经验和技术,加上资本优势,FDI的流入为推动我国产业结构的升级转变提供了可能。我国作为全球最重要的发展中国家,随着对外开放步伐的加快和国内经济的飞速发展,如何在国际产业转移浪潮中合理的利用外资,并实现我国产业结构的升级转变,是当前一个迫在眉睫的问题。事实上,国家也已经把这种认识上升到了战略层面。2011年由发改委和商务部联合下发的《外商投资产业指导目录(2011年修订)》首次提出了“要以完善和升级产业结构,加快转变生产方式为主题来合理引进相关外资,在对外开放过程中,要做到内外统筹兼顾,以外资来补充和优化我国各项产业结构,并着力推进外资在提升我国科技水平、促进产业转型方面发挥重大作用”；我国“十二五”规划要求,“在对外开放引进外资中,要进一步提升外资的利用水平,并以外促内,由表及里,逐步优化我国的产业结构发展方式,进而实现在未来的国际竞争和合作的更高层次上赢得话语权,获得行业主导地位”。因此可以预计,在服务业占整个国民经济比重日趋提高的背景下,占外商直接投资绝大多数份额的服务业FDI势必对中国产业结构升级产生重要影响。因此本文从服务业着手,研究服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的作用机制具有一定的现实意义。全文共分为6个章节,基本研究思路为：梳理相关理论并对国内外研究现状进行评述,进而提出本文研究的着眼点,接着分析中国利用服务业FDI发展概况及产业结构发展现状,在此基础上提出服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应,然后进行服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究,其中包括服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应和冲击效应两部分,最后本文依据研究结论,提出相应的对策建议。第1章为导言。这一章既是本文的总纲,也是为深入理解本文研究的意图、架构和内容的一份说明。包括选题背景与意义、重要概念的界定、研究内容、研究方法、可能的创新点以及研究的不足。第2章为理论基础和文献综述。在这一章中,笔者梳理了国际直接投资理论在服务业的适用性、产业结构升级理论、外商直接投资与产业结构升级之间关系的理论,对国内外有关服务业FDI的经济效应、福利效应、技术进步效应以及产业结构效应研究的主要成就和欠缺进行了总结。第3章为服务业FDI的发展概况分析。本章首先分析了全球服务业FDI的总体发展概况,接着介绍了中国利用服务业FDI发展概况,通过系统性的分析发现：中国服务业FDI流入在波动中上升,服务业FDI内部行业分布不均衡,服务业利用FDI呈现出政策性阶段特征。第4章为产业结构发展现状及服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应分析。通过对全球及我国产业结构现状分析,发现当前我国产业结构发展中存在的突出问题表现在,产业间结构不均衡,产业内部构成不均衡,区域产业结构发展不均衡。通过分析得出,服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应体现在服务业FDI的技术溢出与管理示范效应、“隐性”效应、环境效应、传导效应四个方面。第5章为服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究。主要分为两个部分：服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应研究以及服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击效应研究。前一部分采用灰色关联度分析方法分析服务业FDI对我国经济总量以及三次产业产值结构间的关联效应。后一部分运用多指标综合分析方法,通过分析三次产业利用服务业FDI对各自增加值、就业以及全员劳动生产率的影响,揭示服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击影响。具体采用的实证方法为向量自回归模型(VAR模型)、格兰杰因果检验,以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法。第6章为结论和建议。通过实证研究,本文主要得到以下结论：1.服务业FDI对我国三次产业产值的增长具有不均等的贡献,对第一产业和第三产业的贡献优于第二产业；2.服务业FDI对我国就业结构的优化具有促进作用；3.服务业FDI显著促进了我国全员劳动生产率的提升；4.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的短期效应较为明显；5.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响不具有逆向传导性。据此提出了对策建议：1.推动服务业市场化进程,探索服务业FDI循环传导机制；2.改造升级传统服务业,探索服务产业发展的中国模式；3.合理引导服务业FDI流向,着力打造第二产业配套服务业；4.加强智力资本投入和完善基础实施建设,增强FDI的长期效益；5.依据国家产业政策,因地制宜选择服务业FDI。本文可能的创新体现在以下几点：在研究视角上,本文结合当前我国发展实际,将整个研究范畴限定在服务业领域,具有一定的针对性。通过对相关文献的梳理,笔者发现学术界对于传统外商直接投资影响的研究,主要集中在制造业领域,而对于服务业FDI的关注相对较少。发达国家的发展经历表明,一个成熟的经济体,服务业是三次产业中占比最高、潜力也最大的产业,并且就我国而言,近两年实际利用外商投资总额中服务业FDI已经占据主导地位,因此,本文将研究对象聚焦于服务业,研究服务业FDI与我国产业结构调整升级之间相互作用关系及影响是一个比较新的视角。在研究内容上,本文将宏观分析与微观论证相结合,并突出了研究的微观特征。以往研究服务业FDI与产业结构关系的相关文献,研究者多把重心放在分析服务业FDI与宏观经济增长以及服务业FDI与三次产业间结构变化等领域,忽视了服务业FDI对三次产业内部结构变迁影响的研究。基于此,本文在研究内容上,淡化了对服务业FDI的宏观分析,而把较多的笔墨用于分析服务业FDI对我国三次产业内部结构升级变迁的影响。因而,能够更立体的反映出我国服务业FDI的产业结构效应。在研究方法上,本文注重交互分析,并突出了指标的逆向影响特征。在研究FDI与产业结构关系的文献中,多数学者仅仅分析了FDI对于产业结构变迁的影响,而忽视了分析产业结构变迁对于FDI的影响,因此本文在研究过程中,运用灰色关联法和向量自回归方法,重点分析了各期产业结构相关变量变动后,对我国服务业FDI的变动影响,并在此基础上深入探讨了在我国利用服务业FDI的过程中,如何在现有基础上实现服务业FDI与产业结构升级之间一种相互影响、互为促进、共同进化、效用最大化的局面。
[Abstract]:The service industry in recent years is the world's fastest growing industry, known as the industry and the market development of the "glue". As one of the important symbol to measure the level of regional economic prosperity, the development of service industry is gradually valued by many countries, especially after twenty-first Century, in the global scope, the rapid growth of foreign direct investment in the service industry. FDI in services industry as the core of foreign direct investment, is gradually becoming an important force for the upgrading of the industrial structure adjustment of our country and the world economic system and promote regional economic prosperity, and has profoundly changed the world economy, industry, technology development pattern.
In 2012 China the actual use of foreign investment (FDI) the amount of $111 billion 720 million, for 20 consecutive years to become the largest developing country. The use of foreign capital is due to long-term adherence to the introduction of foreign capital, China has gradually realized the transformation of agricultural country to industrial countries. In a very long period of time, the manufacturing FDI has been the focus of our foreign investment into the field of.2001 as the year officially joined the WTO, China has gradually open service market, FDI in service industry began to grow up fast, become an important part of China's FDI, foreign direct investment in the service sector amount increasing by around $11 billion 900 million in 1997, increased to $57 billion 200 million in 2012, 15 years an increase of nearly 5 times.2011 years of China's service industry the proportion of FDI accounted for more than 50% of the total actual use of foreign capital, the service industry accounted for more than FDI overall manufacturing industry for the first time.
At the same time, 30 years of reform and opening up, China economic development has made remarkable achievements, achieved two digit years of development, people's lives have been greatly improved, in 2013 GDP reached 56 trillion and 900 billion yuan, the total import and export trade reached $4 trillion, ranked first in the world. But the glorious total did not cover the economic structure the growing imbalance of high-energy low traditional resource consumption is still not completely changed, China as a developing country, industrialization has entered into the late, but still there are a lot of workers remaining in the traditional industry; industrial development is more prominent while the total, but the internal structure is still relatively simple, there are some differences between the western science and technology content compared with the developed countries; in the emerging service sector, due to a late start, along with rising labor costs, rapid population bonus cuts, spear The shield has become increasingly prominent. Only to realize the transformation of the domestic industry structure upgrade, only a thorough adjustment of the mode of economic development, in order to achieve a sustainable future growth. Because the foreign countries tend to have more experience and advanced technology and capital advantage, the inflow of FDI provides the possibility to promote the transformation of China's industrial structure upgrading.
China is the world's most important developing countries, with the rapid development of opening up and accelerate the pace of the domestic economy, how to reasonable utilization of foreign capital in the international industrial transfer tide, and to realize the transformation of China's industrial structure upgrading, is an imminent problem. In fact, the country has put this up the strategic level.2011 by the NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Industrial Catalog for foreign investment (revised in 2011) > first proposed to improve and upgrade the industrial structure, accelerate the transformation of the mode of production as the theme to the introduction of relevant foreign investment, in the opening process, to achieve internal and external balanced, to foreign capital to supplement and the optimization of our industrial structure, and efforts to promote foreign investment in the upgrading of China's science and technology level, play a major role in promoting industrial transformation"; "China 12th Five-Year" plan Asked, "at the opening of the introduction of foreign capital, to further enhance the level of utilization of foreign capital, and promote, and gradually optimize the development way from the outside to the inside, the industrial structure of our country, and to win the right to speak at a higher level in the future international competition and cooperation, industry dominant position. Therefore it can be expected in the the service industry accounted for the entire national economy proportion is rising under the background of foreign direct investment accounted for the majority share of the service industry is bound to the FDI Chinese the upgrading of the industrial structure have an important impact. Therefore, this article will start from the service industry, the service industry FDI has certain practical significance on the mechanism of our country's industrial structure upgrading.
The thesis is divided into 6 chapters, the basic research ideas: Theory and reviewed the research status at home and abroad, and then put forward the starting point of this research, then analyze China services utilization of FDI development status quo and development of industrial structure, on the basis of the effect of industrial structure upgrading of service industry FDI, empirical research then the effect of FDI in service industry to upgrade the industrial structure of our country, including FDI in service industry on economic effect of our country's industrial structure upgrading and the impact of the two part, the conclusion on the basis of the research, puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter is the general principles, but also for understanding the intent of this study, structure and content of a note. Including the background and significance of the topic, the definition of important concepts, research contents, research methods and possible lack of innovation and research.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. In this chapter, the author reviews the applicability of the theory of international direct investment in the service industry, the theory of upgrading the industrial structure, the relationship between foreign direct investment and the upgrading of the industrial structure theory, to the domestic and foreign related services FDI economic effect, welfare effect, technical achievements progress effect and industrial structure effect and the lack of research are summarized.
The third chapter is the analysis of the development of service industry FDI. This chapter first analyzes the overall development of the global service industry FDI, then introduces the development of FDI service industry by Chinese, through systematic analysis found: China services FDI inflows rose in the wave, the service industry in the FDI Department of industry distribution, service the use of FDI industry presents the stage of policy.
The fourth chapter is the analysis of the effect of industrial structure development and service industry upgrade of FDI. Through the analysis of the global and China's current industrial structure, found the existing problems of the industrial structure of our country in the development of performance in the industrial structure is not balanced, unbalanced development of industrial structure, regional industrial structure is not balanced by. Analysis of the industrial structure, service industry upgrade of FDI reflects the effect of Technology Spillover and management demonstration effect in service industry FDI, the "hidden" effect, environmental effect, the four aspects of the transmission effect.
The fifth chapter is the empirical research on the impact of FDI services on the upgrading of China's industrial structure. Mainly divided into two parts: the study of FDI in service industry to research the economic linkage effect of our country's industrial structure upgrading and service FDI impact effect to our country's industrial structure upgrading. The first part of analysis of FDI in service industry the total amount of China's economy and the correlation effect of the output value structure of three times industry. By using the grey part by using multi index comprehensive analysis method, through the analysis of the three industrial use of FDI in service industry on their added value, effect of employment and labor productivity, to reveal the effect of FDI in service industry on the impact of China's industrial structure upgrading. The specific use of empirical methods for vector autoregressive model (VAR model), Grainger causality test and impulse response function and variance decomposition method.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. Through the empirical research, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. FDI in service industry has not equal contribution to China's three industry output growth, contribution to the first and third industry than the second industry; 2. FDI in service industry has a role in promoting the optimization of employment structure in our country; 3. the service industry FDI significantly promoted the upgrading of China's labor productivity; the short-term effects of 4. FDI in service industry of our country's industrial structure upgrading is more obvious; 5. FDI in service industry does not have adverse effect on conductivity of our country's industrial structure upgrading. And puts forward countermeasures and suggestions: 1. to promote the service industry marketization, exploration FDI the transmission mechanism of circulation service industry; 2. upgrade traditional service industry, explore the service industry development Chinese mode; 3. reasonable guide services to FDI, efforts to build second industrial supporting services; 4. Strengthening the investment of intellectual capital and perfecting the construction of basic implementation, strengthening the long-term benefit of FDI; 5. selecting service industry according to the national industrial policy and local conditions, FDI.
The possible innovations in this paper are reflected in the following points:
In the research perspective, combined with the current development of our country's actual, the research scope defined in the service sector, has a certain relevance. Based on the related literature, the research of the effect of foreign direct investment in academic circles, the author found, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing field, and for the service industry to the attention of the FDI relatively small. Developed countries experience shows that a mature economy, service industry is more than three industries accounted for the highest potential, is also the largest industry, and in our country, in recent years the actual use of foreign investment in the service industry FDI has been dominant, therefore, this dissertation focuses on the service industry, the service industry between FDI and China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrade the interaction and influence is a relatively new perspective.
In the research content, this paper will demonstrate the combination of macro analysis and micro, and highlights the characteristics of micro research. A review of the relationship between the previous research of FDI in service industry and industrial structure, many researchers focus on the analysis of FDI in service industry and economic growth as well as FDI in service industry and three industrial structure change etc. study, ignoring the effect of FDI in service industry on the three industry internal structure change. Based on this, this article on the research content, dilute the macro analysis of FDI in service industry, and put more ink used to analyze the effects of changes in the internal structure of the service industry to upgrade the FDI of China's three industries. Therefore, more stereo reflect the effect of industrial structure of China's service industry FDI.
In research methods, this paper focuses on interaction analysis, and highlights the adverse impact characteristics. In the study on the relationship between FDI and industrial structure in the literature, most scholars only analyzed the influence of FDI on the industrial structure changes, while ignoring the change of industrial structure analysis for the impact of FDI, so in the course of the study, the use of the grey correlation method and vector auto regression method, focuses on the analysis of the related variables of the industrial structure changes, changes on China's service industry FDI, and on this basis in the process of using FDI service industry of our country, how to realize the service industry between FDI and the upgrading of the industrial structure in a mutual influence on the basis of the existing mutual promotion and common evolution, maximize the effectiveness of the situation.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F719;F121.3

【参考文献】