蔬菜价格波动的农村与城镇居民福利效应——基于省际面板数据模型

发布时间：2018-01-03 09:55

本文关键词：蔬菜价格波动的农村与城镇居民福利效应——基于省际面板数据模型　出处：《农村经济》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：借鉴Minot模型和补偿变量思想,本文构建了蔬菜价格波动的农村和城镇居民福利效应的省际面板数据模型,测算了蔬菜价格波动的农村和城镇居民短期福利效应和长期福利效应。通过比较分析主要得出以下几点结论:各省农村和城镇居民CR值呈下降趋势、农村居民PR值呈递增趋势,但存在较大的省际差异,且城镇居民CR值明显小于农村居民CR值;蔬菜生产价格变化影响着农村居民人均生产福利同方向变化,蔬菜零售价格变化影响着农村居民和城镇居民人均消费福利反方向变化,但蔬菜生产价格在农村居民人均总福利中仍占据主导作用;各省相同或相近的蔬菜价格变化引致的居民福利变化存在明显的省际差异;农村和城镇居民长期人均总福利没有明显优于短期人均总福利,且个别省份和个别年份存在短期人均总福利优于长期人均总福利的情况;农村居民与城镇居民消费福利变化趋势基本一致,但农村居民消费福利普遍优于城镇居民消费福利。结合2017年中央一号文件精神,应该进一步完善蔬菜价格市场信息传递功能、加强蔬菜供给调节机制、健全适时蔬菜消费补贴机制。
[Abstract]:Based on the Minot model and the idea of compensation variables, this paper constructs the inter-provincial panel data model of the welfare effect of rural and urban residents due to the fluctuation of vegetable prices. The short-term welfare effect and long-term welfare effect of rural and urban residents with the fluctuation of vegetable prices were measured. The main conclusions were as follows: the CR value of rural and urban residents in each province showed a downward trend. The PR value of rural residents showed an increasing trend, but there was a great difference between provinces, and the CR value of urban residents was obviously lower than that of rural residents. The change of vegetable production price affects the change of per capita production welfare of rural residents in the same direction, and the change of vegetable retail price affects the reverse direction of per capita consumption welfare of rural residents and urban residents. However, the price of vegetable production still plays a leading role in the per capita welfare of rural residents. The change of residents' welfare caused by the same or similar vegetable price in different provinces has obvious difference between provinces. The long-term per capita total welfare of rural and urban residents is not obviously better than that of short-term per capita total welfare, and the short-term per capita total welfare is better than the long-term per capita total welfare in individual provinces and years. The trend of consumption welfare of rural residents and urban residents is basically the same, but the consumption welfare of rural residents is generally superior to that of urban residents. The function of market information transmission of vegetable price should be further improved, the regulation mechanism of vegetable supply should be strengthened, and the subsidy mechanism of vegetable consumption should be improved in good time.
【作者单位】：西南大学经济管理学院;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘互联网+’生鲜农产品供应链渠道建设中的政策作用与政策研究”(编号:15ZDB169)、国家社会科学基金项目“农产品价格波动的纵向分配效应及产销利益协调机制研究”(编号:14XJY026) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“‘二元结构’背景下粮食价格波动对城乡居民福利效应差异研究”(编号:13YJC790104)和“基于产业链主体的粮食价格波动分配效应及粮农利益保护机制研究”(编号:14YJC790162)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F326.12
【正文快照】： 一、引言公斤涨至12月的4.6元/公斤,是2014年同期的18近年来受不规则因子和季节因子的作用,蔬菜倍;生姜价格2014年最高达到32元/公斤,2015年价格大起大落。大葱价格由最低暴跌到1元/公斤。蔬菜价格如此大起大落,对2015年1月的1.9元/ 农村居民与城镇居民生活造成了怎样的影响,

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