“一带一路”倡议:预期管理、风险规避及战略应对

发布时间：2018-01-04 00:17

本文关键词：“一带一路”倡议:预期管理、风险规避及战略应对　出处：《世界经济与政治论坛》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】："一带一路"倡议是新时期中国领导层统筹国内发展和国际战略的主要政策框架。本文旨在评估中国"一带一路"倡议的预期收益,分析该倡议需持续关注的潜在风险,并进一步提出中国的应对方略。"一带一路"作为一个多维政策框架,中国对其预期收益有四:第一,回应"中国威胁论",提升中国的软实力;第二,通过广袤地域的经济整合,获取中国持续崛起的动力;第三,缓解美国海洋霸权对中国贸易和能源生命线的威胁,维护中国外交与战略权益;第四,重建有利于中国国家利益和"支配地位"的区域秩序。笔者认为,应合理管理对"一带一路"预期,防止高估该倡议的潜在收益,更不能低估该倡议所包含的政治、经济和安全风险。与之对应,中国应从如下四个方面管理自身对倡议的预期及其现实风险:悉心经营国家形象;严格依照经济学原理而非政治决断建立和发展项目,防止过分战略化倾向;降低其军事与安全意涵,谨慎参与军事和战略活动;通过多边框架徐图修正令自己受益颇丰的制度。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road Initiative" initiative is the main policy China leadership and domestic development and international strategy in the new era of the framework. This paper aims to evaluate the Chinese "The Belt and Road" initiative of the expected return, the initiative to analysis the potential risk of sustained attention, and further puts forward the strategy of Chinese. "The Belt and Road" as a multidimensional the policy framework, Chinese on the expected revenue has four: first, in response to "China threat", enhance the soft power of China; second, the economic integration of the vast region, to obtain power Chinese continued to rise; third, the United States to ease the marine hegemony on the threat Chinese trade and energy lifeline, China maintain diplomatic and strategic interests; fourth, is conducive to the interests of the state and the reconstruction of China "dominance" of the regional order. The author believes that the reasonable management of the The Belt and Road is expected to prevent the overestimation of potential benefits of the initiative, but can not underestimate the initiative The political, economic and security risks. Correspondingly, Chinese from the following four aspects to manage their expectations for the initiative and practical risk: careful management of national image; strictly in accordance with the principle of economics rather than a political decision to establish and develop the strategic project, to prevent excessive tendency; reduce its military and security implications, careful to participate in military through the multilateral framework and strategic activities; to make their own benefit the charts correcting system.

【作者单位】：外交学院亚洲研究所;
【基金】：中国-东盟研究院“教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划”(CW201416)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F125
【正文快照】： “丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”(以下统称“一带一路”倡议)是新时期中国领导层统筹国内发展和国际战略的主要政策框架。它代表了中国欲以其不断壮大的经济实力、逐渐增多的政策工具、日渐丰盈的智识经验整合周边地区,并进一步重塑世界政治、经济版图的努力。进

【相似文献】