疲弱复苏的世界经济:新变量、新趋势与新周期——2017年世界经济分析报告

发布时间：2018-01-04 22:12

本文关键词：疲弱复苏的世界经济:新变量、新趋势与新周期——2017年世界经济分析报告　出处：《世界经济研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

更多相关文章： 疲弱复苏 不确定性 新常态 新周期

【摘要】：2016年全球经济增长依旧缓慢,虽不乏亮点,但仍然比较脆弱。这主要是因为目前世界经济受制于一系列深层次的结构性困境,难以走向复苏和增长。展望2017年,世界经济又增添了美国新总统上任、逆全球化升温、贸易保护主义抬头等许多新的不确定性变量,全球经济或仍将维持低增长和弱复苏态势,短期内不稳定性、不确定性增加。如今看来,要走出世界经济的结构性困境并由此实现快速复苏和新的增长,仅仅依靠传统的再平衡政策范式已很难奏效。当前的世界经济既无力在旧有框架下再次回到原有平衡状态,更不可能在本轮周期内重新恢复到危机前的高增长模式,而是需要通过深刻的结构性改革与创新,推动世界经济由再平衡走向新常态,并开启世界经济新的发展周期。综观全球发展大势,当前世界经济已迎来长周期之变,即世界经济正告别上一轮长周期,同时也在孕育新的发展周期,而开启世界经济新周期的根本之道在于技术革命和产业创新。对同样处在经济发展大转型的中国而言,需敏锐抓住世界经济长周期的转折性态势和历史性机遇,以中国发展新理念引领世界经济新周期,让世界经济新周期助推中国经济新发展。
[Abstract]:In 2016, global economic growth remained slow, albeit bright, but still fragile, largely because the world economy was currently subject to a series of deep structural dilemmas. It is difficult to move towards recovery and growth. Looking ahead to 2017, the world economy has added many new uncertainties such as the arrival of a new US president, a rise in reverse globalization and a rise in trade protectionism. The global economy is likely to remain low and weak, unstable and uncertain in the short term. It now looks like it is time to move out of the structural dilemmas of the world economy and, as a result, to achieve a rapid recovery and new growth. Relying solely on the traditional rebalancing policy paradigm is not going to work. The current world economy is unable to return to its original equilibrium under the old framework. Nor will it be possible to return to the pre-crisis high growth model in the current cycle, but to move the world economy from rebalancing to a new normal through profound structural reforms and innovations. And start a new development cycle of the world economy. Looking at the general trend of global development, the current world economy has ushered in a long period of change, that is, the world economy is saying goodbye to the last round of long cycle, but also pregnant with a new cycle of development. The fundamental way to open the new cycle of the world economy lies in the technological revolution and industrial innovation. For China, which is also in the transition of economic development, it is necessary to grasp the turning trend and historic opportunity of the long cycle of the world economy. To guide the new cycle of the world economy with the new concept of China's development, let the new cycle of the world economy boost the new development of China's economy.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院世界经济研究所宏观分析组;
【分类号】：F112
【正文快照】： 上海社会科学院世界经济研究所宏观分析组*本文系在上海社会科学院世界经济研究所宏观分析组撰写的《2017年世界经济分析报告》基础上修改完成,本文执笔:盛垒(博士,副研究员)。参与本报告撰写的有:权衡、胡晓鹏、孙立行、张广婷、周琢、张天桂、薛安伟、陈陶然、智艳、刘芳等

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