全面小康进程中的消费结构变化与产业结构调整

发布时间：2018-01-04 23:08

本文关键词：全面小康进程中的消费结构变化与产业结构调整　出处：《湖南师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：消费结构的优化和升级不仅反映消费层次和质量的提高,而且是建立合理产业结构和产品结构的重要依据,同时对促进整个国民经济稳定协调发展也具有重要作用。我国正处于全面建成小康社会的重要时期,产业结构等方面面临着调整和改革的压力,只有根据消费结构合乎规律的变化引导产业结构调整和升级,才能实现有效供给的增长,才能实现社会经济的持续、快速增长。本文从马克思主义关于消费与生产的经典理论出发,从理论上论证了消费结构与生产结构具有同一性,生产结构决定消费结构,消费结构反作用于生产结构。我国经济已经实现由卖方市场向买方市场的转变,市场消费需求已成为新兴产业形成的基础,是产业升级的直接动因。消费结构变动不仅决定了产业结构调整的方向,同时也决定了经济增长的空间,对整个国民经济以及产业结构都起着举足轻重的作用,因此消费结构应当并且必须成为产业结构调整的基本驱动力量。同时,本文以消费结构信息熵、固定资产投资额、就业人数、技术水平为因变量,产业结构系数为白变量建立回归模型,实证分析得出消费结构变动在诸多影响产业结构的变量中是最为重要的正向因素,从理论和实证的角度得出了消费结构能够影响产业结构,产业结构应该并且必须以消费结构为导向来进行调整,才能从根本上解决买方市场上的供需矛盾。接下来,本文通过消费结构递推预测模型,对2013年至2020年期间的各大类消费支出的具体数值进行了预测,分别预测了消费结构八大类支出中各具代表性行业的变化趋势。最后,文章指出要采取一定的措施对消费结构进行调整,以期消费结构能朝着我们预定的趋势发展,在此基础上通过产业结构政策选择,促进相关代表性行业的发展。
[Abstract]:The optimization and upgrading of consumption structure not only reflects the improvement of consumption level and quality, but also is an important basis for the establishment of rational industrial structure and product structure. At the same time, it also plays an important role in promoting the stable and coordinated development of the whole national economy. China is in an important period of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and the industrial structure is facing the pressure of adjustment and reform. Only by guiding the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure according to the regular changes of consumption structure can we realize the growth of effective supply and realize the sustained and rapid growth of social economy. Based on the classical Marxist theory of consumption and production, this paper demonstrates theoretically that the consumption structure and the production structure are identical, and that the production structure determines the consumption structure. Consumption structure reacts on production structure. China's economy has been transformed from seller's market to buyer's market, and market consumption demand has become the basis for the formation of new industries. The change of consumption structure not only determines the direction of industrial structure adjustment, but also determines the space of economic growth, which plays an important role in the whole national economy and industrial structure. Therefore, the consumption structure should and must become the basic driving force of industrial structure adjustment. At the same time, this paper takes the consumption structure information entropy, fixed assets investment, employment population, technology level as the dependent variables. The coefficient of industrial structure is a white variable to establish a regression model. Empirical analysis shows that the change of consumption structure is the most important positive factor in many variables that affect the industrial structure. From the theoretical and empirical point of view, it is concluded that the consumption structure can affect the industrial structure, and the industrial structure should and must be adjusted in order to fundamentally solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the buyer's market. Then, through the recursive prediction model of consumption structure, this paper forecasts the specific values of various categories of consumer expenditure from 2013 to 2020. Finally, the article points out that certain measures should be taken to adjust the consumption structure. It is expected that the consumption structure can develop towards our predefined trend, and on this basis, it can promote the development of representative industries through the choice of industrial structure policies.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F121.3

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