中日韩自贸区对区域宏观经济及产业产出的影响评估——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 10:09

本文关键词：中日韩自贸区对区域宏观经济及产业产出的影响评估——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析　出处：《现代日本经济》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中日韩自由贸易协定符合三国的长远经济利益,运用GTAP模型模拟中日韩自贸区建立前后的宏观经济影响及产业产出变动情况,研究结果表明:第一,中国劳动力资源与日韩的资本优势形成要素互补,并形成中国劳动密集型产业与日韩资本密集型产业的优势互补;第二,签订中日韩自贸协定能够显著增加各个成员国的经济总量、扩大贸易规模、改善贸易条件和提升福利水平,从而产生贸易创造效应;第三,自贸协定将显著影响中国的畜牧业及肉制品、加工食品等产业以及日韩的重工业,同时,公共事业与建设将成为中日韩互利共赢的产业。可以预见,中日韩为了经济贸易及产业优势的长远发展,需尽快达成自贸协定。
[Abstract]:The free trade agreement between China, Japan and Korea conforms to the long-term economic interests of the three countries. The GTAP model is used to simulate the macroeconomic impact and industrial output changes before and after the establishment of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone. The results show that: first. China's labor resources complement the capital advantages of Japan and Korea, and form the complementary advantages of China's labor-intensive industries and Japan-Korea capital-intensive industries. Second, the signing of China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Agreement can significantly increase the total economic volume of each member country, expand the scale of trade, improve the terms of trade and raise the level of welfare, thus producing trade creation effect. Third, the FTA will significantly affect China's animal husbandry and meat products, processed food and other industries, as well as the heavy industries of Japan and South Korea. At the same time, public utilities and construction will become mutually beneficial and win-win industries between China, Japan and South Korea. For the long-term development of economic, trade and industry advantage, China, Japan and South Korea need to reach free trade agreement as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：山东财经大学国际经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“亚太多重自贸区竞争与中国要素集聚战略转变研究”(14BGJ045)
【分类号】：F113;F752.7
【正文快照】： 中日韩是东亚地区最主要的3个经济体,然而三国之间至今还没有共同签订任何实质性的自由贸易协定,这就使得中日韩不能享受到区域经济一体化为地区经济发展带来的种种实惠和发展红利。东亚作为全球重要的经济活动中心,在区域经济一体化方面已经明显落后于欧盟及北美自由贸易区的

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