湖南省居民收入与消费关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 10:10

本文关键词：湖南省居民收入与消费关系的实证研究　出处：《湖南师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：消费既是再生产过程的终点,也是下一个再生产的起点,居于承前启后的关键地位,起着经济循环的先导作用,是拉动经济增长的根本动力。消费在经济体制改革的进程中,影响和制约着国民经济的持续、健康和稳定发展。自凯恩斯绝对收入消费理论建立以来,经济学家针对不同的重点从多种角度深入研究了消费问题,创立了一些学说,并为实际工作提供了理论指导。有效需求不足是阻碍国民经济持续发展的重要因素,直接影响全国战略目标的实施。因此通过对收入与消费关系进行实证研究来探寻刺激消费和提高消费率的有效途径,对于政府开辟消费市场,制定消费政策,推进国民经济持续、健康与稳定发展和保证宏观经济的安全运作具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文以国内外消费函数模型为研究基础,运用计量经济学的方法,实证分析了湖南省城镇居民收入与消费的关系以及湖南省城乡居民收入差距对居民消费的影响。第一个实证采用湖南省城镇居民1978-2012年的数据,利用协整检验和误差修正模型等理论,对湖南省城镇居民家庭可支配收入和城镇居民家庭平均全年消费支出间的关系进行了协整分析,并建立了误差修正模型。研究结果表明：城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入与城镇家庭平均每年消费支出之间存在短期动态、长期均衡的协整关系,居民的收入对消费有重大影响。第二个实证用向量自回归模型分析了1980-2012年湖南省城乡居民收入差距对消费差别的影响。研究结果表明：收入差距对消费差别具有显著而较长期的影响,两者之间有明显的负相关关系,即收入差距的扩大是致使城乡居民消费倾向不断下降、消费需求增长乏力的重要原因。要扩大居民的内需,重点在于提升城乡居民的消费能力,解决消费需求不足的现状,使国内消费成为支撑经济增长的内生动力。为了促进居民消费的增长,应当努力促进居民的收入增长和缩小收入差距。最后就此提出一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption is not only the end of the reproduction process, but also the starting point of the next reproduction. It plays a key role in connecting the past with the future, and plays a leading role in the economic cycle. Consumption affects and restricts the sustained, healthy and stable development of the national economy in the process of economic system reform. Since the establishment of Keynesian absolute income consumption theory. Economists have studied the problem of consumption from a variety of angles in view of different emphases, and have created some theories. It also provides theoretical guidance for practical work. Insufficient effective demand is an important factor hindering the sustainable development of national economy. Direct impact on the implementation of national strategic objectives. Therefore through empirical research on the relationship between income and consumption to explore effective ways to stimulate consumption and improve the consumption rate for the government to open up consumer markets and formulate consumption policies. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of the national economy and to ensure the safe operation of the macro economy. Based on the consumption function model at home and abroad, this paper uses econometric methods. Empirical analysis of the relationship between urban residents' income and consumption in Hunan Province, as well as the income gap between urban and rural residents of Hunan Province, the impact of residential consumption. The first empirical analysis of Hunan Province urban residents 1978-2012 data. Based on the theory of cointegration test and error correction model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the disposable income of urban households and the average annual consumption expenditure of urban households in Hunan Province. The results show that there is a short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the per capita disposable income of urban households and the average annual consumption expenditure of urban households. The second empirical study uses vector autoregressive model to analyze the effect of income gap between urban and rural residents on consumption difference in Hunan Province from 1980 to 2012. The results show that:. Income gap has a significant and long-term impact on consumption differences. There is an obvious negative correlation between the two, that is, the widening of income gap is the main reason that leads to the decline of consumption tendency of urban and rural residents, the sluggish growth of consumption demand, and the expansion of the residents' domestic demand. The key point is to improve the consumption ability of urban and rural residents, solve the current situation of insufficient consumption demand, make domestic consumption become the endogenous driving force to support economic growth, in order to promote the growth of household consumption. Efforts should be made to promote income growth and narrow the income gap. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7;F126.1

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