河南省非正式经济规模测算研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 18:24

本文关键词：河南省非正式经济规模测算研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：非正式经济是政府干预市场的副产品,其在世界各国普遍存在,是一国总体经济的重要组成部分。人们对非正式经济的研究由来已久.,特别是二十世纪六、七十年代,很多西方国家存在着经济下滑、高失业和高通胀并存的“滞涨”现象,当时西方主流的经济理论却无力解释这种现象。在这种情况下,一些经济学家尝试着从非正式经济方面着手来解释上述经济现象。他们通过研究发现正是由于存在着政府部门监管不到且不被统计体系所统计到的经济活动,使得现有的国民经济核算体系无法准确的反应经济活动的真实情况,使得经济增长率被低估和失业率被高估,从而导致传统的经济理论在解释这种经济现象时失灵。显然,这一理论的出现无疑对“滞涨”.的研究提供了新思路。随后,各国经济学家在这一领域不断探索,创立了非正式经济理论及其测算方法体系。自20世纪70年代以来,非正式经济活动在世界各国都有着惊人的发展,众多学者对此也进行了大量的研究,他们不仅根据各国的具体情况分析了各国非正式经济的发展状况,而且利用不同的方法对非正式经济规模进行测算。比如,据有关专家测算,美国的“非正式经济”规模占美国GNP的4.4%-27%。美国2012年的GNP为156848亿美元,以10%的规模计算,则美国的“非正式经济”规模达到15685亿美元。而就我国来说,由于我国是传统的农业大国,农业从业人口众多,在加上统计体系还不是很完善,因此相应的“非正式经济”活动规模也就相对比较大。根据经验观察显示,在我国农村(含乡镇),广大农户、个体户、失地农民和乡镇企业的日常经济活动基本上是非正式的；在我国城市中,大量的“非正式企业”、个体户、流动农民工、流动摊贩、失业下岗人员的日常经济活动,主要也是以非正式的方式进行；我们甚至还看到,一些正式企业也不时有相当数量的非正式市场交易,一些有着正式就业职位的人,也不定期地参与“非正式经济”活动。如此等等,不一而足。所有这些“非正式经济”活动均难以被官方所统计到,即使有所统计也并不完备。人们之所以对非正式经济如此关注,是因为非正式经济规模的迅速扩大给社会经济带来一系列的危害,造成税收大量流失、政府收入减少,财政赤字加剧；打乱社会资源的合理配置,使资源配置效率下降；导致政府统计出现偏差,造成经济信号失真,扭曲,引起政府宏观经济决策和企业或个人微观经济决策的失误；破坏正常的经济秩序,使社会经济关系发生失调。然而纵观以往的研究,我们发现对非正式经济的研究主要集中在国家层面,大量的学者具体分析了影响一国非正式经济活动的各种原因,并利用不同的方法测算一国非正式经济活动的规模,而具体针对一个省份或地区的研究则很少。然而从省级层面来研究非正式经济活动的影响因素及规模大小可以使地方行政部门对本地区非正式经济活动有一个更直观具体的认识,可以根据本地的实际情况来采取具体措施来对非正式经济活动进行治理。河南作为我国的人口大省、工业大省和农业大省,不仅其经济总量高,而且各方面发展比较均衡,“非正式经济”在河南省的发展是比较活跃的,因此把河南省作为研究对象是比较有代表意义的。因此本文以河南省为例,通过MIMIC模型法和模糊逻辑法来测算河南省非正式经济的规模,使我们对河南省非正式经济活动有一个更直观的认识。在对非正式经济进行研究中,其中一个难点就是对非正式经济至今在理论界尚未有一个统一的定义,定义的不同其所涉及到的经济活动也会有所不同,本文所要研究的“非正式经济”,采用Schneider, BuehnMontenegro(2010)对“非正式经济”的定义,包括由“非正式企业”与个体未登记、未申报或登记、申报不全,未纳税或纳税不全的情况下主要以现金交易方式所从事的经营活动。不包括涉黄贩毒、走私、制售假冒伪劣商品等严重经济犯罪行为。通俗的讲“非正式经济”就是其经济活动是合法的经济活动,但其经济活动有些是未被现有的统计体系所统计到,有些是参与其中的活动者主观的为了偷税漏税、逃避监管而未被统计到。在此定义下来对河南省非正式经济活动进行研究。研究的另一个难点就是非正式经济规模的测算,因为非正式经济活动的隐蔽性和其偷税漏税等特征,其不能被直接观测得到,只能通过间接的手段来得到。由于非正式经济活动的影响因素很多,很多测算其规模的方法主要是考虑其影响因素的某一个方面,且限制性条件比较多,因此得到的结果的准确性可想而知。而多因素多指标模型(MIMIC)本身所具有的特点,可以将影响非正式经济活动的众多影响因素考虑进去,从而得到的结果相对来说要好一些。因此在本文中我们使用多因素多指标模型(MIMIC),选取税收负担、居民收入、失业率、自我就业率、政府管制作为原因变量,实际GDP增长率,劳动力参与率作为结果变量,非正式经济规模作为潜变量,利用河南省1978年-2012年的相关数据来测算潜变量河南省非正式经济规模,接着我们采用模糊逻辑方法来估算非正式经济活动规模大小,从而从侧面来验证MIMIC模型得到的结果。本文分为五个章节来进行写作,第一章是绪论,主要内容是文章的研究背景、研究意义、研究思路、研究内容、研究方法和研究的创新与不足；第二章是文献综述,主要阐述了国内外学者针对非正式经济活动所做的理论研究及对其规模的测算；第三章主要是针对本文所要研究的“非正式经济”活动进行界定,并选择测算“非正式经济”活动的方法；第四章是本文的实证部分,通过所搜集到的数据,利用MIMIC法和模糊集合法来具体测算河南省非正式经济的规模大小；第五章是本文的政策建议部分,针对前文所研究的结论来针对性的提出治理河南省非正式经济活动的政策建议。本文研究的结论主要有以下几个方面：第一,影响河南省非正式经济活动的主要因素是税收负担,居民收入和自我就业率。税收负担越重,人们从事非正式经济活动的意愿越强烈,从而非正式经济活动规模越大；而居民收入越高,其参与非正式经济活动的意愿就会降低,非正式经济活动规模也就会减小；自我就业率越高非正式经济规模也就相对越大。第二,1978年-2012年河南省非正式经济规模介于5%-25%之间,大致可以分为四个阶段,第一阶段,1978年-1984年非正式经济规模逐年降低；第二阶段：1985年-1993年非正式经济规模开始逐年上升；第三阶段：1994年-1999年河南省非正式经济又出现一个下降的趋势潮；第四阶段：2000年-2012年,在这十来年间非正式经济规模又出现逐步上升的趋势。第三,通过模糊集合方法估算的非正式经济活动规模变动趋势与通过MIMIC方法测得的非正式经济活动规模变动走势基本相同,从而从侧面印证了MIMIC方法得到结果的可靠性。根据以上结论,本文从加强政府监管,增加公民纳税意识,完善统计制度等方面着手概括性的提出了治理非正式经济活动的政策建议：第一,发挥政府调控者、监管者的作用,制定合理的经济政策、提高政府效率、降低正式经济的进入成本,使经济良好运行；第二,加强监管力度,提高非正式经济的运行成本。第三,完善法律体系建设；第四,建立完善的税收制度；第五,增加公民纳税意识；第六,完善统计制度。
[Abstract]:The informal economy is a by-product of the government's intervention in the market, which is common in all countries in the world and is an important part of the overall economy of a country.
Research on the informal economy's long-standing. Especially in twentieth Century, six, 70s, many western countries have the economic downturn, high unemployment and high inflation "stagflation" phenomenon, the western mainstream economic theory cannot explain this phenomenon. In this case, some economists try to explain the economic phenomenon from the informal economy. They through the study found that it is because of the existence of government supervision to and statistics are not system statistics to the economic activity, the real situation reflects economic activities make existing national economic accounting system can not accurately, the economic growth rate is underestimated and the unemployment rate is overvalued, which leads to the failure of traditional the economic theories to explain this economic phenomenon. Obviously, the emergence of this theory is the "stagflation". The study provides a new way of thinking with. After that, the economists in various countries have been exploring in this field, and established the informal economic theory and its calculation method system.
Since 1970s, informal economic activities have a striking development in the world, many scholars have done a lot of research, they not only according to the specific circumstances of the analysis of the development of national economy and informal, using different methods to calculate the size of the informal economy. For example, according to expert estimates, the United States "informal economy" scale accounted for U.S. GNP 4.4%-27%. us GNP in 2012 for $156848, with 10% of the scale of calculation, America's "informal economy" reached $15685.
In our country, because our country is a traditional agricultural country, the agricultural population is numerous, the statistics also add in system is not very perfect, so the corresponding "informal economy" the scale is relatively large. According to the empirical observation shows that, in China's rural areas (including township), the majority of farmers, the self-employed. Landless farmers and township enterprises in the daily economic activity basically is informal; in the city of our country, a large number of informal enterprises, self-employed, migrant workers, mobile vendors, daily economic activities of laid-off workers, mainly in the informal way; we even saw some formal informal enterprises a considerable number of market transactions, there are some formal jobs who did not regularly participate in "informal economic activities. So, this is not the only one. All of these" informal economy ". The movement is difficult to be officially counted, even if statistics are not complete.
The reason why people in the informal economy so much attention, because the informal economy is the rapid expansion of the scale of social economy to bring a series of hazards, resulting in a huge loss of tax revenue, government revenue, the fiscal deficit is increasing; the rational allocation of social resources to disrupt the resource allocation efficiency decreased; lead the government statistical deviation caused by economic signal distortion, distortion from the government of macroeconomic and microeconomic enterprise or individual decision-making mistakes; destroy the normal economic order, social economic relations disorder.
However, previous studies, we found that the research on the informal economy mainly focus on the national level, a large number of scholars have analyzed the factors affecting the informal economic activities of a country, and the use of different methods to measure the size of the informal economy activities of a country, and on a state or region. However, acupuncture is rarely to study the influence factors of informal economic activity from provincial level and scale to local administrative departments for informal local economic activities have a more intuitive understanding of the specific, can according to the local conditions to take concrete measures to governance of informal economic activity. Henan is China's most populous province, a large industrial province and a major agricultural province, not only the total economic output is high, and all aspects of balanced development, development of "informal economy" in Henan province is relatively active, Therefore, taking Henan Province as the research object is quite representative. Therefore, taking Henan Province as an example, we calculate the scale of Henan's informal economy by MIMIC model and fuzzy logic method, so that we have a more direct understanding of Henan's informal economic activities.
Study on the informal economy, which is one of the difficulties of the informal economy in the theoretical circle has not yet to have a unified definition, different definitions of the involved economic activities will be different, this paper is to study the "informal economy", by Schneider, BuehnMontenegro (2010) definition of "informal economy", including "informal enterprises and individuals without registration, or fails to declare the registration, reporting is not complete, no tax or tax is not the case with cash transactions in the operating activities. Not including the jurisprudence of drug trafficking, smuggling, selling counterfeit and shoddy goods and other serious economic crimes popular. The" informal economy "is the economic activity is legitimate economic activity, but its economic activity is not some statistical system of existing statistics, some of which are involved in the activities of the subjective Tax evasion, evasion of supervision and not being counted. This is a definition of informal economic activities in Henan.
Another difficulty is the study of the informal economic scale estimates, because the informal economic activities of the concealment and the characteristics of tax evasion, which cannot be directly observed, can only be obtained through indirect means. There are many factors that influence the informal economic activities, many estimates of its scale is the main method to consider the impact of a factors, and more restrictive conditions, so the accuracy of the results. As can be imagined and multi factor and multi index model (MIMIC) characteristics, can be affected by many factors influencing informal economic activities into consideration, so as to get the results relatively better. In this paper we use multi factor and multi index model (MIMIC), select the tax burden, income, unemployment, self employment, government regulation as the variable, the actual growth rate of GDP, labor Force participation rate as a result variable, the informal economy as latent variables to measure the informal economy latent variables in Henan province using related data of Henan province in 1978 -2012 years, then we use fuzzy logic method to estimate the size of informal economic activity, which from the side to verify the MIMIC model results.
This paper is divided into five chapters to writing, the first chapter is the introduction, the main content is the research background, the research significance, research ideas, research contents, research methods and innovations and deficiencies; the second chapter is literature review, mainly expounds the theoretical research of scholars at home and abroad for non formal economic activities and to measure the scale; the third chapter mainly focuses on the research of the "informal economy" is defined, and select the method to calculate the "informal economy" activities; the fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper, through collecting the data, using the MIMIC method and the fuzzy set method to calculate the informal economy in Henan the size of the province; the fifth chapter is the policy suggestion part, according to the above research conclusion to put forward the policy of governance in Henan province informal economic activities.
The conclusions of this study are mainly the following aspects: first, the main influence factors of informal economic activity in Henan province is the tax burden, income and self employment rate. The heavier tax burden, people engaged in informal economic activities will more intense, and informal economic activity is larger; and higher income residents, their participation in informal economic activities will be reduced, informal economic activity scale will be reduced; the higher the rate of self employment of non formal economic scale is relatively larger. In second, Henan Province in 1978 -2012 informal economic scale ranged between 5%-25%, can be roughly divided into four stages, the first stage, 1978 -1984 informal economy year by year reduce; second stage: 1985 -1993 informal economy began to rise year by year; the third stage: 1994 -1999 in Henan province and the informal economy Present a downward trend and tide; the fourth phase: 2000 -2012 year, gradually rising trend appeared in this decade the informal economy scale. Third, through informal economic activity scale change trend estimation method of fuzzy set and informal by measured by MIMIC method of economic activity scale change trend is basically the same, so the reliability from the side confirm the MIMIC methods to get the results.
According to the above conclusions, this article from strengthen government supervision, increase the tax consciousness of the citizens, and improve the statistical system and other aspects briefly discussed informal economy governance policy suggestions: first, the role of government regulation, the role of the regulators, formulate economic policies, improve government efficiency, reduce the cost of entering the formal economy, make the economy good operation; second, strengthen supervision, improve the operation cost of the informal economy. Third, perfecting the legal system construction; fourth, establish and improve the tax system; fifth, improve citizen's consciousness of tax; sixth, improve the statistical system.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】