人口老龄化对我国收入不平等的影响探究

发布时间：2018-01-08 23:17

本文关键词：人口老龄化对我国收入不平等的影响探究　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济一直保持高速增长,但居民收入差距不断扩大。世界银行数据库资料显示,1998年中国的基尼系数为0.403,2001年为0.45,2004年上升到0.47,收入不平等状况正在日趋严重已是事实。与此同时,可以观察到这恰好也是我国人口老龄化逐渐凸显的时期。2000年,我国65岁以上人口占总人口比重超过7%,标志着我国已进入老龄化社会。根据2016年《中国统计年鉴》数据,2015年65岁以上人口占总人口的比重已经达到10.5%,超过世界平均水平,我国已成为老龄化较为严重的发展中国家。人口老龄化和收入不平等作为我国较为突出的两个现象,老龄化是否对收入不平等有一定的影响?目前我国正处在经济发展和人口转型的关键时期,研究这一问题将有利于缓解人口老龄化给收入分配带来的严峻挑战,对于优化人口结构、调整收入分配政策具有重要的意义。关于人口老龄化对收入不平等影响的研究,国外大多采用跨国或者国别数据,国内则按照农村地区和城镇地区分别进行研究,很少将我国各省份作为研究对象。其次,多数研究都止于检验老龄化对居民收入不平等的影响方向,并未深入分析这种影响主要是来源于顶部老龄化还是底部老龄化。最后,从不同经济发展水平下、不同老龄化水平下两个角度探究人口老焌化对收入不平等的影响是否存在差异的文献非常少。因此,本文将在研究老龄化对收入不平等的影响机制的基础上,对老龄化作用的异质性进行考察,对已有研究作进一步的补充与拓展,以期能更客观全面地反应经济现实。基于此,本文运用我国1998年～2014年省际面板数据,分析了老龄化对收入不平等的影响。实证结果表明,老龄化会显著地扩大收入不平等,并且这种影响主要来自顶部老龄化,因为不同年龄群体内的收入不平等是随着年龄增加而上升的。对控制变量的研究结果表明,经济发展水平与收入不平等呈现倒U型规律特征,外资开放程度、城市化水平以及人力资本水平的提高都会缩小收入不平等,提高金融发展水平和对外贸易程度反而会扩大收入不平等。在考虑到内生性问题和异常样本点问题,并运用工具变量法和系统广义矩估计方法进行检验,上述结论依旧稳健。对老龄化作用异质性研究发现,经济发展水平较高或者老龄化水平较高的省份,人口老龄化对收入不平等的作用更大。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, but the income gap is expanding. The world bank data show that in 1998 the Gini coefficient Chinese for 0.4032001 years for 0.452004 years up to 0.47, income inequality is increasingly serious. It is a fact that can be observed at the same time, which is precisely the population aging in China the emerging period of.2000 years, China's population aged over 65 accounted for the proportion of the total population of more than 7%, indicates that China has entered the aging society. According to 2016 statistical yearbook > < China data, 2015 people over the age of 65 in the proportion of the total population has reached 10.5%, more than the average level of the world, our country has become the aged more serious in developing countries. Two the phenomenon of aging population and income inequality in China is more prominent, whether aging has a certain impact on the income inequality at present? China is in a critical period of economic development and population transformation, will help alleviate the severe challenges of population aging brings to the income distribution research of this problem, to optimize the population structure, is of great significance to adjust the policy of income distribution. On the aging of the population on the impact of income inequality, most of the foreign or multinational country according to the data, the domestic rural areas and urban areas were studied, and rarely in various provinces of China as the research object. Secondly, most studies to test the aging of the residents' income inequality affect the direction, not in-depth analysis of this effect is mainly derived from the top or bottom of the aging aging. Finally, from under different level of economic development, different aging level under the two perspective of old population Jun impact on income inequality whether there are differences in the literature for very little. This paper will be based on this, the influence mechanism of income inequality in the study of aging, inspect the heterogeneity of the aging effect, further complement the existing research and development, in order to more objectively and comprehensively reflect economic reality. Based on this, this paper in China from 1998 to 2014 the provincial panel data analysis of the impact of aging on income inequality. The empirical results show that the aging population will significantly increase income inequality, and this influence mainly from the top of the aging, because of the different age groups in income inequality is increasing with the increase of age. The control variables study results show that the economic development level and income presents the characteristics of inverted U type inequality law, foreign openness, city level and improve the level of human capital will reduce income inequality, improve the level of financial development and foreign trade. It will enlarge the income inequality. In considering the endogeneity problem and the abnormal samples, and using the instrumental variable method and System GMM estimation method of testing, the results are still robust. The study of heterogeneity of effects on aging, a higher level of economic development or aging with higher levels of provinces, the aging population more on the role of income inequality.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F124.7

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