农业供给侧改革视角下非粮化与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 10:37

本文关键词：农业供给侧改革视角下非粮化与经济增长的关系研究　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年19期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：当前农业供给侧结构性改革背景下研究非粮化与经济增长的关系有重大意义。首先分析了1985年以来我国经济增长过程中非粮化的发展及问题,然后从宏观与中观层面对非粮化与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)从宏观层面看,非粮化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,经济增长是非粮化的格兰杰原因,是促进非粮化发展的关键因素。而非粮化并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,还没有成为促进经济增长的重要动力。(2)从中观层面看,13个粮食主产区非粮化与经济增长之间的相关性呈越来越强的趋势;脉冲分析反映出约8个月的响应迟滞期,相对于东北、黄淮海区,长江中下游区非粮化受经济增长的刺激影响较大且反应灵敏。据此建议:兼顾国家粮食安全与经济发展,积极推进农业供给侧改革;区别看待三大粮食主产区非粮化,做好粮-经-饲三元结构调整,促进一、二、三产业融合发展;遵循市场经济规律,规范非粮化;优化非粮的内部结构和区域布局;继续发掘非粮对经济增长的潜力与价值。
[Abstract]:Is of great significance to study the relationship between non food and economic growth in the background of the current agricultural supply side structural reforms. The first analyzes the process of China's economic growth since 1985 in the development and problems of food, and from the macro and meso level relationship of non food and economic growth in the empirical analysis. The study found that: (1) from the macro level, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between non food and economic growth, economic growth is the Grainger reason of non food, is a key factor to promote the development of non food. Not Grainger but not the cause of economic growth and food, has not become an important driving force to promote economic growth. (2) from the middle level, the correlation between grain and economic growth showed a growing trend of non 13 major grain producing areas; pulse analysis reflects the response lag period, about 8 months with respect to the northeast, the Huang Huai Hai region, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Area of non food stimulation by economic growth influence and responsive. We advise: food security and economic development of both countries, actively promote the agricultural supply side reforms; look at the difference between non food of three major grain producing areas, good grain - by - fed three yuan of structural adjustment, promote a, two, integration of the development of three industry; follow the rules of market economy, standard of non food; the internal structure and layout optimization of regional non grain; non grain to continue to explore the potential and value of economic growth.

【作者单位】：周口师范学院/周口发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年基金(编号:16CGL038) 河南省教育厅高校科学研究重点项目(编号:18A630071)
【分类号】：F124.1;F321
【正文快照】： 当前我国农村耕地和基本农田不同程度地存在“非粮化”,原来种植粮食作物的耕地被用来种植经济作物、青饲作物及发展养殖业等。根据国家统计局统计资料整理,全国非粮作物总播种面积由1985年的3 478万hm2增加到2015年的5 303万hm2,增加了1 825万hm2,占现有农作物播种面积的31.8

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