领导权的适应性逻辑与国际经济制度变革

发布时间：2018-01-09 22:03

本文关键词：领导权的适应性逻辑与国际经济制度变革　出处：《世界经济与政治》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从2008年以来国际货币基金组织的改革过程来看,可以发现美国对同类改革议题的容纳程度存在明显的差异,并直接影响着制度变革的效果。现有的国际制度的内部权力转移、外部竞争压力和国内政治的调节视角,解释了领导国家对制度改革的支持或抵制态度,但缺乏对领导国家应对改革的利益权衡及其策略选择的复杂性分析。作者以国际制度改革对领导权的冲击度、利益兼容度和领导权护持的成本因素所构建的分析框架发现,如果竞争者推动的国际制度改革是对领导权冲击度高的制度性变革且利益兼容度低,会导致既有领导国家的强烈反制;如果是冲击度低的程序性变革且利益兼容度高,既有领导国家会容忍或支持竞争者的改革;如果制度性变革且利益兼容度高,或者程序性变革且利益兼容度低,既有领导国家会依据护持成本选择反制或容忍。1994年至1998年国际货币基金组织框架内的资本账户自由化改革以及1998年至1999年欧盟倡议金融稳定论坛和日本倡议亚洲货币基金组织等案例所呈现的领导权较量表明,新兴大国在国际制度框架内争取制度性权力,需要增加改革方案的利益兼容度及提高既有领导权的护持成本,以推动所期望的制度变革。
[Abstract]:From the reform process of the International Monetary Fund since 2008, we can find that there are obvious differences in the accommodating degree of the similar reform issues in the United States. And directly affects the effect of institutional change. The existing international system of internal power transfer, external competition pressure and domestic political adjustment perspective, explain the leadership of the support or resistance to the reform of the system attitude. However, there is a lack of complexity analysis on the trade-off of the interests of leading countries in response to reform and the choice of strategies. The author uses the impact of international institutional reform on leadership. The analysis frame of interest compatibility degree and cost factor of leadership protection found that if the international system reform driven by competitors is institutional change with high impact on leadership and low degree of interest compatibility. Will lead to a strong opposition to the existing leadership of the country; If there is a low degree of impact of procedural changes and high degree of interest compatibility, the existing leading countries will tolerate or support the reform of competitors; If the institutional change and the degree of interest compatibility is high, or the procedural change and the degree of interest compatibility is low. Established leaders will choose to counter or tolerate based on maintenance costs. Capital account liberalization reforms within the framework of the International Monetary Fund from 1994 to 1998 and EU initiatives from 1998 to 1998. Cases such as the Financial Stability Forum and the Japan Initiative for the Asian Monetary Fund show a contest of leadership. In order to push forward the desired institutional change, the emerging powers strive for institutional power within the framework of the international system, so as to increase the degree of interest compatibility of the reform program and the maintenance cost of the existing leadership.
【作者单位】：清华大学国际关系学系;清华大学中美关系研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“自由贸易区建设与亚太安全关系重构研究”(项目编号:15AGJ006)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D81;F113.1
【正文快照】： 一大国较量与国际经济制度变革的经验困惑 2008年以来,世界经济的长期低迷和国际经济治理的绩效不足,使得美国主导的国际经济制度都面临巨大的变革压力。其中比较大的变化是,二十国集团(G20)机制升级从而在全球经济治理中的地位得到提升,金融稳定论坛(FSF)转型为金融稳定委员

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