中国地方政府债务现状及其对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-01-13 02:05

本文关键词：中国地方政府债务现状及其对经济增长的影响　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：举借债务是政府融资的重要手段之一,能够使政府在税收之外获得更加充裕的资金。在我国,地方政府债务种类多样,层级复杂且隐蔽性强,这些都加大了对地方政府债务研究的困难。2009年以来,地方政府平台公司债务出现了井喷式的增长,在债务巨额增长的同时,债务的违约风险以及其对经济的影响引起了社会的关注。基于这一现实背景,本文通过各种渠道收集地方政府的债务信息,一方面通过对债务数据的统计性分析来简单衡量地方政府债务的风险,另一方面通过对债务与地方经济的实证分析来探讨债务对经济增长的影响以及可能的影响机制。本文通过对债务数据的统计性分析,发现债务的增长存在一定的地区差异和层级差异,部分地方政府面临较大的债务负担。统计分析显示,东部经济较发达地区的债务融资数量显著高于内陆经济较落后地区,这容易进一步拉大地区间的经济差异；市县级等财力较弱政府的债务增长率急速攀升,加大了债务的偿还风险；许多省份债务占财政收入的比重较高,政府面临较大的偿还压力。本文的实证分析结果表明政府债务负担对经济增长有负面的影响,通过进一步的交互性检验,认为债务减缓经济增长可能是通过抑制投资以及抑制技术进步这两种渠道实现的。
[Abstract]:Debt is an important means of government financing, to make the government more ample funds in addition to the tax revenue. In our country, local government debt levels of species diversity, complex and concealment, since these have increased the difficulty of local government debt of.2009 years, the local government platform company debt blowout growth in huge debt growth, debt default risk and its impact on the economy has aroused the concern of society. Based on the realistic background, this paper collects local government debt information through various channels, on the one hand, through the statistical analysis of the data on debt risk to simple measure of local government debt, on the other hand through the empirical analysis of the debt and the local economy to explore the effect of debt to economic growth as well as the possible influence mechanism. In this paper, through the statistical data of the debt Analysis found that there are some regional differences and different levels of debt growth, some local governments face greater debt burden. Statistical analysis showed that the number of debt financing in the economically developed eastern region were significantly higher than those in inland economically backward areas, this is easy to pull economic differences between regions; county level financial weak government debt the growth rate of the rapid rise, increase the debt risk; many provinces debt accounted for a higher proportion of revenue, the government is facing greater pressure to repay. The empirical results show that government debt burden has a negative impact on economic growth, through the interactive test further, think the debt of slowing economic growth may be achieved by inhibiting investment and suppress the technological progress of these two channels.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5;F124.1

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