金融机构贷款对经济增长的乘数效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 13:44

本文关键词：金融机构贷款对经济增长的乘数效应分析　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2009~2015年期间,我国金融机构的贷款业务不断迅速扩张,而经济也在稳步发展,毋庸置疑金融机构部门的贷款融资是经济发展不可或缺的关键因素,但是经济进入新常态时期,贷款总量却依然不断在增速,如此反差现象难免会有疑问,我们的经济增长是否过度依赖于贷款推动?是否能够更进一步细致分析社会各个方面的贷款对实体经济的作用?货币政策作为政府调控经济的手段,该如何合理地去实施?这些问题都值得去深思,因此本文针对以上问题来对金融机构的贷款对实体经济的影响做出具体深入分析。本文首先分析出金融机构贷款对实际经济直接和完全的影响机制,其次根据实际需求灵活编制出2001~2014年矩阵式资金流量表以及2015年资金流量延长表,并且创新性的以资金流量表为研究大背景即完整的资金流动系统,将乘数分析模型引入分析资金流量表中具体交易项目贷款对经济的影响,最终得出的结果是:在国内首次测算出各机构部门使用贷款情况对其产出直接与完全影响程度,即“部门*交易”的直接收入(支出)系数和完全收入(支出)系数,同时将各个部门综合起来可知总贷款量对整个经济的乘数效应。比较分析以上贷款对实体经济的拉动与推动作用的差异以及其各自的变化趋势得出:非金融企业较大依赖于金融机构的贷款,住户部门的消费贷款也是经济增长的重要关键点,其次是金融部门发展壮大的速度非常快,另外也要挖掘国外机构部门发展的潜力,整体来看,金融机构贷款对实体经济的作用程度随时间变化基本平稳,变动甚微,但值得注意的是,在经济新常态下,贷款对国内机构部门的完全影响都微小增大。根据以上结果为“实现优化资金利用率、提升经济发展”的相关机构部门以及中央人民银行提出切实可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:From 2009 to 2015, the loan business of financial institutions in our country has been expanding rapidly, and the economy is developing steadily. There is no doubt that the loan financing of financial institutions is an indispensable key factor in economic development, but when the economy enters the new normal period, the total amount of loans is still increasing continuously, so the contrast will inevitably be questioned. Is our economic growth overly dependent on lending? Can we further analyze the role of loans in various aspects of society on the real economy? Monetary policy as a means of government regulation and control of the economy, how to implement it reasonably? These questions are worth pondering. Therefore, this paper aims at the above problems to make a specific and in-depth analysis of the impact of financial institutions' loans on the real economy. Firstly, this paper analyzes the direct and complete mechanism of the financial institutions' loans to the real economy. Secondly, according to the actual demand, the matrix capital flow statement from 2001 to 2014 and the fund flow extension table on 2015 are compiled flexibly. And the innovative capital flow statement as the background of the study, that is, the complete capital flow system, the multiplier analysis model is introduced to analyze the impact of specific transactions in the fund flow statement on the economy. The final result is that, for the first time in China, the extent to which the use of loans by institutions has a direct and complete impact on their output has been measured. That is, the direct income (expenditure) coefficient and the complete income (expenditure) coefficient of "sector * transaction". At the same time, we can know the multiplier effect of the total loan amount on the whole economy by synthesizing all the departments. By comparing and analyzing the difference of the pulling and promoting effects of the above loans to the real economy and their respective changing trends, we can draw the conclusion that:. Non-financial enterprises rely heavily on loans from financial institutions. Household sector consumer loans are also an important key point of economic growth, followed by the rapid development of the financial sector, and also to tap the potential of the development of foreign institutions, overall. The effect of financial institution loans on the real economy changes steadily with time, with little change, but it is worth noting that in the new normal state of the economy. The full impact of lending on the domestic institutional sector has increased slightly. According to the above results, "optimize the utilization of funds". The relevant institutions and departments of promoting economic development as well as the Central people's Bank of China put forward practical policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;F832.4

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