未观测经济测算及其在内蒙古自治区应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 07:31

本文关键词：未观测经济测算及其在内蒙古自治区应用研究　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国内生产总值(GDP)是衡量一个国家的经济发展水平、制定宏观经济政策的主要参考指标。但是,由于各种原因,总有未被测算的生产活动。未观测经济的存在,降低了GDP数据的准确性。鉴于它的隐蔽性和特殊性,政府部门难以对其进行度量,因此,如何准确计算和衡量未包含在国内生产总值中的经济规模成为近年来研究GDP数据质量的焦点。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,简要介绍未观测经济的概念、分类和影响因素。梳理未观测经济的测算方法,结合内蒙古自治区的现实情况,运用收支差异法、物量投入法的货运量模型、潜在变量法的MIMIC模型分别对内蒙古自治区未观测经济进行测算,探讨三种方法的适用性。在测算过程中,通过MIMIC模型法得到内蒙古未观测经济的主要影响因素包括税收负担、非正规经济和政府管制程度三方面,最后结合测算过程中发现的问题和最终的测算结果提出建议。
[Abstract]:Gross domestic product (GDP) is the main reference index to measure a country's level of economic development and formulate macroeconomic policies. However, for a variety of reasons. There are always unmeasured production activities. The existence of unobserved economy reduces the accuracy of GDP data. In view of its concealment and particularity, it is difficult for government departments to measure it. How to accurately calculate and measure the economic scale not included in GDP has become the focus of research on GDP data quality in recent years. Based on the research results at home and abroad, this paper briefly introduces the concept, classification and influencing factors of unobserved economy, combing the measurement methods of unobserved economy, and combining with the reality of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. The unobserved economy of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region is measured by using the freight volume model of income and expenditure difference method, the volume input method and the MIMIC model of latent variable method. The applicability of the three methods is discussed in the course of calculation. The main influencing factors of the unobserved economy in Inner Mongolia are the tax burden, the informal economy and the degree of government regulation. Finally, combined with the problems found in the calculation process and the final calculation results, some suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F224

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