中日韩经济周期的贸易传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 02:07

本文关键词： 经济周期协动性贸易强度产业结构相似度出口结构相似度产业内贸易　出处：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和区域一体化的迅速发展，学者们也渐渐将经济周期的钻研对象从单独经济体转变为多元经济体，从孤立的研究转向各经济体互动的开放型研究。全球化趋势下各国在经济领域的交往更加频繁，一国能够通过贸易、金融等多种渠道传递本国的经济周期波动至其他国家，与之相应的是，本国经济发展也会受到外来因素的影响，这类相互作用使得各个国家间的经济周期协动性呈现逐步增强的趋势。于是在开放的世界经济形势下，国际贸易对经济周期进行传导的机制就成了十分值得探讨的话题。本文从经济周期的贸易传导机制入手，采用矩分析的方法对比了中日韩经济周期的稳定性、可持续性和协动性三方面的波动特征，沿着经济周期的贸易传递这一路径，以中日韩三国为研究对象，选取了贸易强度、出口产品结构、产业内贸易、产业结构等贸易传递因素，建立FR模型并采用OLS及3SLS方法回归分析了这些贸易因素对经济周期协动变化的作用程度，同时比较分析了中日、中韩、日韩经济周期协动性传导因素的差异和影响水平的强弱，为东北亚经济一体化加强的趋势下我国通过宏观调控手段来规避外部因素冲击提供了依据。基于这些研究，本文主要结论如下：（1）双边贸易强度对中日、日韩经济周期协动性的作用为正方向的，而对中韩的经济周期协动性的作用是反方向的。（2）在经济周期协动性的三个专业化指标中，产业结构相似度对经济周期协动性的影响程度最小，基于对外贸易的专业化指标对经济周期协动性的影响较基于工业结构的专业化指标大。（3）日韩产业结构相似度对经济周期协动性的影响程度要大于中日、中韩，这是由日韩之间的第二产业相似性程度较高所致。最后，，在对实证结论进行原因分析的基础上，本文提出未来我国应建立防止外部冲击的监测预警机制、保持合理的贸易增长水平、调整产业和出口产品结构等对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economic globalization and regional integration, scholars have gradually changed the research object of economic cycle from single economy to multiple economy. From isolated research to open research on the interaction of economies. Under the trend of globalization, countries interact more frequently in the economic field, and a country can trade through it. Finance and other channels to transfer the domestic economic cycle fluctuations to other countries, corresponding to the domestic economic development will also be affected by external factors. Such interactions have led to a gradual increase in the economic cycle dynamics among countries, and thus in the open world economic situation. The transmission mechanism of international trade to the economic cycle has become a topic worth discussing. Starting with the trade transmission mechanism of the economic cycle, this paper compares the fluctuation characteristics of the economic cycle between China, Japan and South Korea in three aspects, namely, stability, sustainability and co-movement by using the method of moment analysis. Trade transmission along the economic cycle of China, Japan and South Korea as the research object, selected trade intensity, export product structure, intra-industry trade, industrial structure and other trade transmission factors. The FR model was established and the effects of these trade factors on the economic cycle were analyzed by using OLS and 3SLS regression analysis. At the same time, China, Japan, China and South Korea were compared and analyzed. The difference of the coactive conduction factors and the influence level of the economic cycle in Japan and Korea. It provides the basis for our country to avoid the impact of external factors by means of macro-control under the trend of economic integration in Northeast Asia. Based on these studies, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) the effect of bilateral trade intensity on Sino-Japanese, Japan-Korea economic cycle synergy is positive, but on Sino-Korean economic cycle synergism is in the opposite direction. Among the three specialization indexes, the similarity of industrial structure has the least influence on the coactivity of business cycle. The influence of specialization index based on foreign trade on the coordination of economic cycle is greater than that on industrial structure. (3) the industrial structure similarity between Japan and South Korea has more influence on the coactivity of business cycle than that between China and Japan, which is caused by the high similarity of secondary industry between Japan and South Korea. Finally, based on the analysis of the reasons of the empirical conclusions, this paper proposes that China should establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism to prevent external shocks in the future, and maintain a reasonable level of trade growth. Adjustment of industrial and export product structure and other countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F113.7

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