我国劳动力流动对区域经济差距的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 03:37

本文关键词： 劳动力流动区域经济差距影响因素　出处：《新疆大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放后随着经济体制的改革以及对流动劳动力管制的逐步放宽,我国掀起了劳动力流动热潮,劳动力主要由中、西及东北欠发达地区流动至东部发达地区,促使我国区域经济差距逐步扩大,为了应对区域经济的不平衡性,国家出台“西部大开发”、“中部崛起”、“振兴东北老工业基地”、“对口援疆”等相应政策支持欠发达地区经济,以促进区域经济协调发展,由此劳动力流动规模增速放缓,回流趋势明显。本文首先对我国劳动力流动的历史沿革及特征进行描述性统计分析,接下来将我国分为四大区域,利用泰尔指数分析我国自改革开放以来(1978-2015年)不同阶段区域经济差距的变动趋势,使用灰色关联度揭示劳动力流动和区域经济发展之间的关联程度,然后利用2000-2015年我国31个省市面板数据构建固定效应变截距模型,对劳动力流动对区域经济差距的影响进行了实证分析,最后在理论和实证分析的基础上,针对不同地区提出差别化政策建议。本文得出以下主要结论:第一,近些年我国劳动力流动规模增速先高速增长后有所减缓,流动劳动力有回流趋势,且流动方向区域差异明显。流动劳动力性别区域不平衡,新生代劳动力成为主力军,受教育程度以中等教育为主,性别、年龄使得职业分布也存在差异。第二,利用泰尔指数分析1978-2015年我国区域经济差距的变动趋势,认为自改革开放以来我国区域经济差距呈先减小后增大再减小的“N”型趋势,且区域内经济差距尤其是东部和西部区域内经济差距,是导致我国区域经济差距的主要方面。第三,以总人口与GDP的关联程度为基准,利用灰色关联度分析省内流动、跨省流动和总流动(省内流动+跨省流动)与GDP的关联程度,得出省内流动、跨省流动和总流动与GDP的关联程度均高于总人口与GDP的关联程度,且跨省流动与GDP的关联程度高于省内流动与GDP的关联程度。将我国按照四大区域对上述指标分别进行灰色关联度计算,得出2000年-2010年不同地区的跨省流动与GDP的关联程度以上升为主。第四,选取泰尔指数(T)为被解释变量,劳动力流动率(Lm)为解释变量,人力资本存量(Edu)、物质资本积累(Inv)、城市化水平(City)、财政支出(Fin)为控制变量,构建面板数据模型进行实证分析,得出:首先,在东部和中部,劳动力流动缩小了区域经济差距,在西部和东北部,劳动力流动扩大了区域经济差距;其次,人力资本的积累以及城市化水平的提高,在促进我国经济增长中发挥重要作用。本文认为,劳动力流动对我国各地区区域经济差距的影响不同,由此应当因地制宜,根据当地劳动力流动对区域经济发展差距的具体影响提出相应对策建议。针对东部和中部,完善相应社会保障制度,同时提高跨省流动劳动力素质;针对西部和东北部,应当积极引导劳动力回流,协调产业合理转移。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, with the reform of economic system and the gradual relaxation of the regulation on the floating labor force, China has set off an upsurge of labor mobility, mainly from the central, western and northeast underdeveloped areas to the eastern developed areas. In order to cope with the imbalance of regional economy, the state has issued "the Great Development of the West", "the rise of the Central China" and "Revitalizing the Old Industrial Base in Northeast China". In order to promote the coordinated development of regional economy, the corresponding policies such as "counterpart aid Xinjiang" and other policies support the economy of less developed areas, thus slowing down the growth rate of the scale of labor flow. The reflux trend is obvious. Firstly, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the history and characteristics of labor mobility in China, and then divides our country into four regions. This paper analyzes the changing trend of regional economic gap in different stages of China since the reform and opening up to the outside world. The grey correlation degree is used to reveal the correlation between labor flow and regional economic development, and then the fixed effect variable intercept model is constructed by using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2015. On the basis of the empirical analysis of the impact of labor mobility on the regional economic gap, the paper puts forward the differential policy recommendations for different regions on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. In recent years, the growth rate of labor flow scale in our country first increased at a high speed and then slowed down, the floating labor force has a trend of return, and the regional difference of the flow direction is obvious, and the gender of the floating labor force is not balanced. The new generation of labor force become the main force, the education level is mainly secondary education, sex, age makes the career distribution is also different. Second. Based on the analysis of the trend of regional economic disparity in China from 1978 to 2015, it is concluded that the regional economic gap in China has decreased first and then increased and then decreased since the reform and opening up to the outside world. And the regional economic gap, especially in the eastern and western regions, is the main factor leading to the regional economic gap in China. Thirdly, the correlation between the total population and GDP is taken as the benchmark. Using the grey correlation degree to analyze the correlation degree between the flow in the province, the inter-provincial flow and the total flow (the inter-provincial flow and the inter-provincial flow) and the GDP, the flow in the province is obtained. The correlation degree between GDP and inter-provincial mobility and total mobility was higher than that between total population and GDP. Moreover, the correlation degree between inter-provincial mobility and GDP is higher than that between intra-provincial mobility and GDP. The grey correlation degree of the above indexes is calculated according to the four regions in China. From 2000 to 2010, the correlation degree between interprovincial flow and GDP was mainly increased. 4th, Tyr index was selected as the explanatory variable. The labor flow rate (Lm) is the explanatory variable, the human capital stock is equal to the Edury, the material capital accumulation is involute, the urbanization level is CityCy, and the fiscal expenditure is the control variable. First of all, in the east and the middle, labor mobility has narrowed the regional economic gap, and in the western and northeast, labor mobility has widened the regional economic gap; Secondly, the accumulation of human capital and the improvement of urbanization level play an important role in promoting China's economic growth. According to the specific impact of local labor mobility on the regional economic development gap, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions should be put forward, and the corresponding social security system should be improved for the eastern and central regions. At the same time, improve the quality of inter-provincial floating labor force; In view of the western and northeast, we should actively guide the return of labor force and coordinate the rational transfer of industries.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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