技术与规模耦合视角下碳排放回报效应和锁定效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-21 14:09

本文关键词： 碳排放规模因素技术因素回报效应锁定效应　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来的中国充分享受了粗放式经济带来的利益,但是这种高污染、高能耗、低效率的经济发展方式也无时无刻不在刺痛着中国发展的神经。中国碳排放量的急剧增长,除去经济规模的增长这一原因之外,技术进步的回报效应和锁定效应也扮演着重要角色。由于碳排放回报效应和锁定效应的存在,碳排放的技术与规模之间存在着紧密复杂的关系。虽然技术发展在一定程度上提高了能源的利用率,减少了二氧化碳的排放量,但是长期来看,碳排放回报效应和锁定效应的共同影响最终会扩大经济规模,提升能源消耗,增加二氧化碳排放量。因此,提高低碳技术是否一定减小二氧化碳排放规模并不确定,技术对于规模的影响机制还需要进一步研究。本文从碳排放的技术与规模耦合的视角分析和研究了中国宏观层面的低碳技术所引发的回报效应和锁定效应。将结构因素的影响排除在外,重新定义了碳排放的回报效应和锁定效应,并在理论上分析了回报效应和锁定效应。实证方面,以中国碳排放、经济增长、行业结构、能源消耗等数据为基础,对碳排放进行因素分解,将碳排放的因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应三种不同的效应,建立实证模型。利用规模效应和技术效应数据,建立VAR模型,研究两者之间的关系,并建立了脉冲响应模型。得出碳排放的规模效应与技术效应的两者的相互之间的冲击响应图像,分析了碳排放锁定效应和回报效应。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has fully enjoyed the benefits of extensive economy, but this kind of high pollution, high energy consumption. The inefficient way of economic development has been stinging on the nerves of China's development all the time. China's rapid increase in carbon emissions, apart from the growth in the size of the economy. The return effect and locking effect of technological progress also play an important role because of the carbon emission return effect and locking effect. There is a close and complex relationship between the technology and the scale of carbon emissions. Although technology development has improved energy efficiency to some extent and reduced carbon dioxide emissions, but in the long run. The combined effect of carbon emission return effect and locking effect will eventually expand the scale of the economy, increase energy consumption, and increase carbon dioxide emissions. It is uncertain whether increasing low-carbon technologies will necessarily reduce the scale of carbon dioxide emissions, and the mechanism of their impact on scale needs to be further studied. From the perspective of technology and scale coupling of carbon emissions, this paper analyzes and studies the return effect and locking effect caused by low carbon technology at the macro level in China, and excludes the influence of structural factors. This paper redefines the return effect and locking effect of carbon emissions, and theoretically analyzes the return effect and locking effect. The empirical analysis is based on the data of China's carbon emissions, economic growth, industry structure, energy consumption and so on. The factors of carbon emissions are decomposed into three different effects: scale effect, structure effect and technical effect. The empirical model is established. The data of scale effect and technical effect are used. The VAR model was established to study the relationship between the two and the impulse response model was established. The impact response images of the scale effect of carbon emissions and the technical effect were obtained. Carbon emission locking effect and return effect are analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124.5

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