信贷结构对山东区域经济发展影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 02:00

本文关键词： 银行信贷信贷结构区域经济　出处：《山东财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放之后，央行改变以往对宏观经济的行政直接干预，开始转为对货币政策的调整，借助这样的政策去影响国家经济。信贷渠道属于货币政策中的一个有效传导渠道，也是我国货币政策中最重要的一个传导渠道。本世纪初以来多家商业银行在山东地区设立了很多分支机构，对山东地区投放数额巨大的信贷资金，与此同时山东经济连续多年快速增长。在银行机构投放信贷资金的同时，为了自身长期利益，一些产业中的企业不可避免的受到了信贷配给。本文主要利用山东地区1978年—2012年的信贷余额、GDP值、信贷对三大产业的拉动率等数据分析山东地区信贷结构同经济增长的关系，分析信贷配给在三大产业中的存在情况及对山东地区经济发展的影响。通过对山东地区银行信贷及GDP数据间的描述性分析我们看到信贷机构对山东经济发展有正向促进作用，对第二产业贡献率极大，促进了山东地区产业结构的调整。但是银行信贷对第一产业及第三产业存在信贷配给，阻碍了山东地区第三产业的发展。在对VAR模型进行实证分析后证实：山东地区信贷量同GDP间为单向因果关系，信贷量每增加1%，地区内GDP会增长1.45%。但是银行信贷在第一、第二两个产业中利用率不高，对第三产业配给严重。针对上述研究结果，要使银行信贷更好促进经济发展，，减少信贷配给的副作用，地区政府应当从配套正确的产业政策，优化信贷结构；建立完善信用评价体系；建立行业协会，使企业管理实现组织化；促进产业结构优化，提高贷款利用率几个方面加以改善。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the central bank changed the previous direct administrative intervention on the macroeconomic, and began to change to the adjustment of monetary policy. With the help of such policies to affect the national economy. Credit channels belong to an effective transmission channel of monetary policy. Since the beginning of this century, many commercial banks have set up a lot of branches in Shandong region, and put a huge amount of credit funds into Shandong area. At the same time, Shandong economy has been growing rapidly for many years. At the same time, bank institutions put in credit funds, for their own long-term interests. Enterprises in some industries are inevitably subject to credit rationing. This paper mainly uses the credit balance of Shandong from 1978 to 2012. This paper analyzes the relationship between the credit structure and the economic growth in Shandong, the existence of credit rationing in the three industries and its influence on the economic development of Shandong. Through the descriptive analysis of bank credit and GDP data in Shandong, we can see that credit institutions have a positive role in promoting the economic development of Shandong, and have a great contribution to the secondary industry. Promote the adjustment of industrial structure in Shandong, but the bank credit to the primary industry and the third industry exist credit rationing. It hinders the development of the tertiary industry in Shandong. After the empirical analysis of the VAR model, it is confirmed that there is a one-way causal relationship between the credit volume and GDP in Shandong region, and the amount of credit increases by 1%. GDP in the region will grow by 1. 45%. But bank credit is not used well in the first, 22th industries and is heavily rationed to the third industry. In order to promote the economic development and reduce the side effects of credit rationing, the regional government should optimize the credit structure from the appropriate industrial policies. Establishing and perfecting the credit evaluation system; Set up the trade association, make the enterprise management realize the organization; Promote industrial structure optimization, improve loan utilization rate to be improved in several aspects.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F127

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