甘肃省旅游消费对经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-24 09:39

本文关键词： 旅游消费经济增长格兰杰因果检验灰色关联理论消费弹性　出处：《西北师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：旅游消费是人们的收入水平达到一定阶段后出现的一种较高层次的消费形式，是居民消费的重要组成部分。我国自改革开放初期，就将旅游业视为带动中国经济发展的重要动力，它也被称作经济增长的“最新推动力”，由此可以看出旅游消费经济增长有着深刻的联系。国家就旅游业的发展制订了许多相关政策，在此带动下，许多省市也将旅游业的发展做作为带动本地区经济发展的主要动力之一。甘肃省具有丰富的旅游资源，这些丰富的旅游资源在西北地区占有重要地位，外加国家对旅游业的重视持续加强，在这样的环境下，甘肃旅游业经过十几年尤其是近几年的发展，取得了飞速进步，旅游业已成为甘肃国民经济的重要组成部分。而在旅游业备受瞩目的发展条件下，对旅游业的研究逐渐发展广泛，，其中的一个主要研究方向就是旅游消费。目前诸多研究认为旅游业中最核心、最值得研究的部分就是旅游消费，通过研究其在国家或地方经济发展过程中的作用从而有针对性地提出政策建议。在我国区域经济发展不平衡的现实情况下，经济比较落后的西北地区要实现赶超就要找到适合地区发展的经济发展方向，甘肃也同许多地区一样，将旅游业看做是甘肃经济发展的重要产业或者带动产业，而这就有必要研究甘肃现今发展下，旅游业的发展是否会积极的带动甘肃经济增长的发展。本文正是选择了旅游消费这一研究方向，探讨了甘肃省的旅游消费发展现状以及其对甘肃省经济增长的影响。研究基于“旅游消费相关理论研究——旅游消费对经济增长影响的理论分析——甘肃省经济发展现状及旅游消费发展现状——旅游消费对甘肃省经济增长影响的实证研究——旅游消费结构变动对经济增长的实证研究——结论与政策建议”的思路，运用理论分析、统计分析及计量分析等方法，从理论和实证两方面较为系统的分析研究了甘肃旅游消费对经济增长的影响。理论方面，根据旅游消费的概念特点以及国内外相关研究分析，构建了旅游消费影响经济增长的理论框架和影响机制。实证方面，在全面分析甘肃旅游消费特征的基础上，依据理论分析框架，从旅游消费总量和消费结构变动两方面，通过运用格兰杰因果检验以及消费弹性、灰色关联理论等模型进行研究，最终得出结论，认为甘肃省现今旅游消费虽然发展还是较为不合理，对经济增长影响的所占比例相对较少，但甘肃省旅游消费发展不断趋于合理化，对经济增长的影响也呈上升趋势，旅游消费的发展会拉动甘肃省经济增长发展，并提以此结论提出了促进甘肃省旅游消费更加合理化发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Tourism consumption is a higher level of consumption after people's income level has reached a certain stage, and it is an important part of residents' consumption. China has been in the early stage of reform and opening up. Tourism is regarded as an important driving force for China's economic development, and it is also known as the "latest driving force" of economic growth. From this, we can see that the economic growth of tourism consumption has a profound relationship. The country has formulated many related policies on the development of tourism, which is driven by this. Many provinces and cities also regard the development of tourism as one of the main driving forces to promote the economic development of the region. Gansu Province has rich tourism resources, which occupy an important position in the Northwest region. In addition, the national emphasis on tourism continues to strengthen, in such an environment, Gansu tourism after more than ten years, especially in recent years, has made rapid progress. Tourism has become an important part of the national economy of Gansu Province. However, under the condition of tourism development, the research on tourism has gradually developed widely. One of the main research directions is tourism consumption. At present, many studies think that tourism is the core of tourism, and the most worthy part is tourism consumption. Through the study of its role in the process of national or local economic development in order to put forward targeted policy recommendations in China's regional economic development imbalance in the reality. In order to catch up with and surpass the economically backward northwest region, we must find the suitable direction of economic development. Gansu, like many regions, regards tourism as an important industry or driving industry of Gansu's economic development. It is necessary to study whether the development of tourism will actively promote the economic growth of Gansu under the current development of Gansu. This paper chooses the research direction of tourism consumption. This paper discusses the present situation of tourism consumption in Gansu Province and its influence on the economic growth of Gansu Province. Research based on " A theoretical Analysis of the impact of Tourism consumption on Economic growth: an empirical study on the impact of Tourism consumption on the Economic growth of Gansu Province-the present situation of Economic Development in Gansu Province and the present situation of Tourism consumption Development. -an empirical study on the impact of changes in Tourism consumption structure on Economic growth: conclusions and Policy recommendations. Of course. Using the methods of theoretical analysis, statistical analysis and econometric analysis, this paper systematically analyzes the impact of tourism consumption on economic growth in Gansu Province from both theoretical and empirical aspects. According to the concept characteristics of tourism consumption and related research and analysis at home and abroad, this paper constructs the theoretical framework and influence mechanism of tourism consumption impact on economic growth. Empirical analysis on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of tourism consumption in Gansu Province. According to the theoretical analysis framework, from the total amount of tourism consumption and consumption structure changes, through the use of Granger causality test, consumption elasticity, grey correlation theory and other models to study, finally reached a conclusion. It is considered that although the development of tourism consumption in Gansu Province is still unreasonable and the proportion of its impact on economic growth is relatively small, the development of tourism consumption in Gansu Province tends to be rationalized. The impact on economic growth is also on the rise, and the development of tourism consumption will stimulate the economic growth of Gansu Province, and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the more rational development of tourism consumption in Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7;F127

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