技术吸收、政府推动与中国全要素生产率提升

发布时间：2018-01-27 12:02

本文关键词： 技术进步开放经济吸收与创新全要素生产率提升　出处：《中国工业经济》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：对于DSGE模型中的技术进步过程,很多文献将其设置成"中性"特征置入生产函数,目前还没有文献从发展经济体"技术吸收"的动态视角研究经济增长中的全要素生产率提升问题。通过构建一个两国贸易流动与技术吸收特征的动态模型,本文采用前沿的"贝叶斯估计"方法讨论了中国技术演化的实现路径。基于"贝叶斯估计"方法的实证结果和数值模拟结果显示:"吸收与创新"并举的模式能够在统计意义上更好地解释中国的经济现实;技术吸收带来的效率提升是中国经济增长和全要素生产率提升的重要源泉,开放经济下中国的经济增长是长期可持续的。当技术存量积累水平较高时,其对GDP的提升效应要延续到下半个周期才能够体现出来;当技术吸收少、自主创新多时,全要素生产率在短期内的提升结果低于技术吸收多时的情景;当国外技术创新具有不确定性特征时,国外技术创新对本国的全要素生产率仍具有提升效应,但是抑制了本国技术的增长效应,呈现出一定的技术"替代性"。
[Abstract]:For the process of technological progress in the DSGE model, many literatures have set it as a "neutral" feature into the production function. At present, there is no literature to study the promotion of total factor productivity in economic growth from the dynamic perspective of "technology absorption" in developing economies. By constructing a dynamic model of the characteristics of trade flows and technology absorption between the two countries. In this paper, the frontier Bayesian estimation method is used to discuss the path of technological evolution in China. The empirical results and numerical simulation results based on Bayesian estimation show that: "absorption and innovation" The parallel model can better explain China's economic reality in the statistical sense; The efficiency improvement brought by technology absorption is an important source of China's economic growth and total factor productivity (TFP). Under the open economy, China's economic growth is sustainable in the long run, when the level of technology stock accumulation is high. The promotion effect of GDP can only be reflected in the second half of the cycle. When technology absorption is less and independent innovation is more, the result of total factor productivity improvement in the short term is lower than that of technology absorption for a long time. When foreign technological innovation is characterized by uncertainty, foreign technological innovation still has an increasing effect on the total factor productivity of our country, but it inhibits the growth effect of domestic technology and presents a certain technological "substitution".
【作者单位】：南京财经大学财政与税务学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究”(批准号12&ZD064);国家社会科学基金青年项目“地方举债融资的经济效应与风险预警机制研究”(批准号15CJY077) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程二期项目“财政支持技术创新研究”(批准号PAPD)
【分类号】：F124.3
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出在实现民族振兴、加快发展的历史进程中,中国既通过政府主导改革的模式推动发展,又通过改革开放和学习国外先进的科技加快发展。中国引进外资、合作经营、吸收与采用新技术的经济增长模式是现实中的增长模式。对此,学术界早在研究技术选择时就强调,发展中国家政府

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