基于系统动力学方法的成都市能源—环境—经济3E系统的建模与仿真

发布时间：2018-02-01 20:38

本文关键词： 系统动力学建模协调可持续发展 3E系统　出处：《成都理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济可持续发展的过程中，能源、环境要素发挥着重要作用。本文通过研究成都市经济协调可持续发展的过程中能源消费和环境污染治理状况，总结出成都市能源和环境要素对于经济增长的影响效用，为今后经济的发展提出了科学建议，这对于成都市转变经济增长方式，实现经济可持续发展，具有重要的现实意义。本文以成都市经济、能源、环境三大系统所组成的复合系统为研究对象，探索各子系统之间的关系，旨在发掘成都市实现经济协调发展的因素，从而推动成都市经济、能源、环境的协调发展。本文运用西方经济学、统计学、计量经济学、系统动力学等相关理论和分析方法，内容主要围绕成都市地区能源-环境-经济3E系统的系统动力学模型的建立、数据的收集、模型参数的估计、能源消费和环境污染对经济发展影响率的测算几个方面进行。主要研究成果是： 1.根据经济学、统计学相关理论和系统动力学相关知识，建立了成都市经济、能源、环境3E系统的系统动力学模型，该模型包含了经济子系统、能源子系统和环境子系统，同时各子系统要素的选择结合了经济学基本理论，又考虑了成都市的实际，能够较为真实的反映成都市发展的实际情况。 2.运用统计学方法估计出各子系统相关要素间的关系，并列出系统动力学方程。根据测算结果：（1）成都市经济发展对于能源需求的依存度较高，同时又明显受环境因素的制约；（2）治理废气项目的投资比例对地区生产总值、能源消费、地区生产总值增长量、固体废弃物污染物存量影响为正，说明投入治理废气的投资增加时，会拉动地区生产总值、能源消费的增加；治理废气项目的投资比例对空气污染存量和污水污染存量的灵敏度影响为负，说明投入治理废气的投资增加时，会使空气污染存量和污水污染存量的减少；（3）第二产业产值占地区生产总值的比例与地区生产总值、能源消费、地区生产总值增长量、固体废弃物污染物存量和污水污染的存量成正向增长，具有正向作用；（4）协调发展模式着重于优化三次产业结构和环保投资结构，调整第一产业结构、第二产业结构和第三产业结构的比例达到1:49:50，治理废气项目投资比重、治理固体废弃物项目治理比重和治理废水项目投资比重三者比重调整为5:1:4，同时按照年均0.5的减少速度调整降低各年单位GDP能耗，协调发展模式为成都市未来发展最优模式。本文的创新之处在于：从系统动力学的原理入手，，分析了成都市经济-能源-环境各子系统的发展现状及各系统之间相互影响的关系，根据实际情况分析建立了成都市经济-能源-环境3E系统的系统动力学模型。最后通过运用计算机仿真模拟出成都市能源、环境以及社会经济的未来发展情况，并对仿真预测结果提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the process of sustainable economic development, energy and environmental factors play an important role. This paper studies the situation of energy consumption and environmental pollution in the process of coordinated and sustainable economic development in Chengdu. This paper summarizes the effect of energy and environment factors on economic growth in Chengdu, and puts forward some scientific suggestions for the future economic development, which will change the mode of economic growth and realize sustainable economic development in Chengdu. It has important practical significance. This paper takes the complex system of Chengdu economy, energy and environment as the research object, and explores the relationship between the subsystems, in order to explore the factors of realizing the coordinated economic development in Chengdu. In order to promote the coordinated development of Chengdu economy, energy, environment. This paper uses western economics, statistics, econometrics, system dynamics and other related theories and analysis methods. The contents mainly focus on the establishment of system dynamics model, data collection and estimation of model parameters of energy, environment and economic 3e system in Chengdu. Energy consumption and environmental pollution impact on economic development are measured in several aspects. The main research results are as follows: 1. According to the related theories of economics, statistics and system dynamics, the system dynamics model of Chengdu economy, energy and environment is established, which includes the economic subsystem. Energy subsystem and environment subsystem, at the same time, the choice of the elements of each subsystem combined with the basic theory of economics, but also considered the reality of Chengdu, which can reflect the actual situation of Chengdu development. 2. Using the statistical method to estimate the relationship between the relevant elements of each subsystem, and to list the system dynamics equation. According to the result of calculation, the economic development of Chengdu has a high degree of dependence on the energy demand. At the same time, it is obviously restricted by environmental factors; (2) the proportion of investment in waste gas treatment projects has a positive effect on the regional GDP, energy consumption, the growth of regional GDP, and the stock of solid waste pollutants, indicating that the investment in the treatment of waste gas is increasing. Will stimulate the region's GDP, energy consumption increases; The sensitivity of the investment proportion of waste gas treatment to air pollution and sewage pollution is negative, which shows that the increase of investment in waste gas treatment will reduce the air pollution and sewage pollution. (3) the ratio of the output value of the secondary industry to the region's gross domestic product (GDP) is in a positive direction with the regional GDP, the energy consumption, the growth of the regional GDP, the storage of solid waste pollutants and the stock of sewage pollution. Has the positive action; 4) the coordinated development model focuses on optimizing the structure of three industries and investment in environmental protection, and adjusting the structure of the primary industry. The proportion of the structure of the secondary industry and the structure of the third industry reaches 1:49:50. The proportion of investment in waste gas treatment projects, solid waste treatment projects and wastewater treatment projects was adjusted to 5: 1: 4. At the same time, the energy consumption per unit GDP is reduced according to the average reduction rate of 0. 5 per year, and the coordinated development model is the best model for the future development of Chengdu. The innovation of this paper lies in: starting with the principle of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the development status of each subsystem of economy, energy and environment in Chengdu and the relationship between each system. According to the actual situation, the system dynamics model of the economic-energy-environment 3e system in Chengdu is established. Finally, the energy source of Chengdu is simulated by computer simulation. The future development of environment and social economy, and the policy suggestions on the simulation prediction results are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F426.2;F127

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