固定资产投资形势分析及预测

发布时间：2018-02-04 17:48

本文关键词： 固定资产投资有效投资　出处：《宏观经济管理》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：今年上半年,全国固定资产投资运行基本平稳,累计增速达到8.6%,增幅同比回落0.4个百分点。制造业投资和房地产开发投资增速有所加快,基建投资增速高位回落。当前,需要严控地方政府违规融资、金融去杠杆推动资金成本抬升、其他服务业投资增长偏低、到位资金等先行指标走弱等。展望下半年,外贸出口改善、工业企业利润好转、先进制造业较快发展、土地出让收入大幅增长、特色小镇建设加快推进、幸福产业快速增长等将支撑投资平稳运行。综合判断,预计下半年和全年投资将分别增长8%左右和8.3%左右。
[Abstract]:In the first half of this year, the operation of fixed asset investment throughout the country was basically stable, with a cumulative growth rate of 8.6 percent, a drop of 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, while investment in manufacturing and real estate development accelerated. The high growth rate of infrastructure investment fell back. At present, local governments need to strictly control illegal financing, financial deleveraging drives up the cost of capital, and other services investment growth is on the low side. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the export of foreign trade will improve, the profits of industrial enterprises will improve, the advanced manufacturing industry will develop faster, the income of land sales will increase substantially, and the construction of small towns with characteristics will accelerate. The rapid growth of the happiness industry will support the smooth operation of the investment. Judging from the analysis, the investment in the second half and the whole year is expected to increase by about 8% and 8.3% respectively.
【作者单位】：国家信息中心经济预测部;
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 一、固定资产投资形势分析上半年,固定资产投资增长基本平稳,延续了去年四季度以来稳中有好的发展态势。累计投资增速达到8.6%,增幅同比回落0.4个百分点。2016年以来投资逐季名义增速分别为10.7%、8.1%、7.1%、8%、9.2%和8.3%,下滑势头得到初步遏制(见图1)。但是,综合实际增速

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