国际投资风险因素是否影响中国在“一带一路”国家的OFDI——基于扩展投资引力模型的实证检验

发布时间：2018-02-06 05:38

本文关键词： “一带一路”战略 OFDI 风险因素引力模型　出处：《国际经贸探索》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章结合"一带一路"海外投资战略要求及投资实践,重点就风险因素对中国OFDI的潜在影响机理进行分析。扩展投资引力理论模型提出研究假设,应用泊松伪极大似然估计(PPML)方法进行实证检验。研究发现:汇率波动、共同语言、政治动荡、反华情绪与中国主权摩擦会影响OFDI,政府治理质量提高不能促进OFDI,经济自由度的提高会显著促进OFDI。除风险影响变量外,经济规模及经济增速也对OFDI产生显著影响,劳动力成本及地理距离因素不应是对"一带一路"国家投资关注的重点。相应提出了以下对策建议:(1)建立汇率风险监测体系,差异化确定结算货币,合理运用金融避险工具;(2)强化与东道国政府联系,增加经济自由度高的低经济水平国家投资;(3)重视与海外华人、华侨互动,防范化解地区冲突摩擦;(4)差异化看待经济规模及发展潜力影响,正确审视劳动力成本及地理距离因素。
[Abstract]:Combined with "Belt and Road" overseas investment strategy requirements and investment practice, this paper focuses on the analysis of the potential impact mechanism of risk factors on China's OFDI, and puts forward research hypotheses on the expansion of investment gravity theory model. Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PML) is used to test OFDI. It is found that exchange rate fluctuation, common language, political instability, anti-China sentiment and China sovereignty friction will affect OFDI. The improvement of government governance quality can not promote OFDI, the increase of economic freedom will significantly promote OFDI. besides the risk impact variables, the economic scale and economic growth rate will also have a significant impact on OFDI. The factors of labor cost and geographical distance should not be the focus of the national investment of "Belt and Road". Accordingly, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to establish the exchange rate risk monitoring system, and to differentiate and determine the settlement currency. Rational use of financial hedging tools; (2) strengthening ties with host governments to increase investment in countries with high economic freedom and low economic levels; Third, attach importance to the interaction with overseas Chinese and overseas Chinese, and prevent and resolve regional conflicts and frictions; 4) differentiating the influence of economic scale and development potential, examining the factors of labor cost and geographical distance correctly.
【作者单位】：山东财经大学国际经贸学院;
【基金】：山东省自然科学基金博士项目(2R2016GB01) 山东省哲学社会科学规划重大理论与现实问题协同创新研究专项(15CCXJ03) 山东省高校科研计划项目(G15WG24) 山东财经大学杰出青年培育计划项目:“一带一路”战略下中国开放型经济转型发展路径研究”
【分类号】：F125

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