2016年世界经济形势分析及2017年预期和建议

发布时间：2018-02-14 09:32

本文关键词： 年世界经济形势发达经济体新兴经济体全球经济治理　出处：《中国流通经济》2016年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2016年世界经济总体处于经济发展底部,短期难以出现经济复苏奇迹,发达经济体总体走低,新兴经济体总体走高走强但分化明显。世界经济在诸多旧有矛盾尚未解决的情况下,又出现了一系列新的情况和问题,新旧矛盾交织并存。世界经济进入全球化4.0时代,新兴经济体特别是金砖国家在全球经济治理中开始发挥积极正面作用,创新驱动倡议成为全球经济复苏的驱动力。近几年特别是2016年下半年以来,中国开始在世界舞台上扮演更加重要的角色,中国消费与投资、中国所制定的方案、中国所提出的倡议对世界经济增长与世界经济格局的影响日益增大。2017年我国所面临的经济形势和外部环境依然严峻,为更好地适应世界经济的新常态、世界货币政策的持续调整和分化、新贸易保护主义的抬头和全球新技术革命的加快发展,我们要继续推动全球宏观经济政策的协调,继续落实我国"十三五"规划和"一带一路"重大倡议,继续推动落实二十国集团领导人峰会上达成的共识以及2014年APEC峰会形成的决议,推动亚太自由贸易区进程,及早制定和研究应对方案,化解国际竞争性贬值与突发性金融风险、全球性高债务高杠杆风险、新一轮制造业转移风险以及政治因素所导致的经济风险。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the world economy as a whole was at the bottom of economic development, and it was difficult to see a miracle of economic recovery in the short term. A series of new situations and problems have emerged, new and old contradictions are intertwined and coexisting. As the world economy enters the era of globalization 4.0, emerging economies, especially the BRICS countries, are beginning to play an active and positive role in global economic governance. Innovation-driven initiatives have become the driving force behind the global economic recovery. In recent years, especially since the second half of 2016, China has begun to play a more important role on the world stage. In 2017, the economic situation and external environment facing China are still grim, in order to better adapt to the new normal of the world economy. With the continuous adjustment and division of world monetary policy, the rise of new trade protectionism and the accelerated development of the global new technological revolution, we must continue to promote the coordination of global macroeconomic policies. Continue to implement China's 13th Five-Year Plan and major initiatives of "Belt and Road", continue to promote the implementation of the consensus reached at the summit of the leaders of the Group of 20 and the resolution reached at the APEC summit on 2014, and promote the process of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area. Early formulation and study of countermeasures to resolve the international competitive devaluation and sudden financial risks, global high debt high leverage risk, a new round of manufacturing transfer risk and political factors caused by economic risk.
【作者单位】：中国国际经济交流中心;
【分类号】：F113

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