“资源诅咒”视角下榆林市经济发展研究

发布时间：2018-02-19 19:23

本文关键词： 自然资源经济增长资源诅咒榆林资源富集区　出处：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“资源诅咒”假说说明丰富的自然资源反而阻碍了当地经济的发展。作为新兴的资源型城市,榆林市凭借着丰富的煤炭、石油、天然气资源,经济取得了飞快的发展。1998-2013年榆林市国民生产总值增长了近44倍,增长速度位列陕西省各市区第一,成为带动陕西经济的第二大经济实体。直观上看,榆林市的自然资源禀赋与经济增长之间并不存在明显的“诅咒”现象,那么,究竟榆林作为资源富集区会不会出现像山西、新疆等地出现的“资源诅咒”现象,在经历短暂的繁荣之后,陷入增长困境?这是本文研究的主要目的。本文主要选取采掘业固定资产投资、制造业固定资产投资、采掘业从业人员、制造业从业人员、以及代表科技创新的技术费用投入、代表人力资本积累的教育费用投入、代表制度的进出口总额为指标,运用计量经济学中的多元回归来分析它们与经济增长之间的关系。结果显示,目前榆林市并不存在着明显的“资源诅咒”,采掘业目前还能够给榆林市经济增长带来正面效用。此外,除制造业固定资产投资以及技术费用投入外,其他因素都对榆林市经济的增长产生了负面作用。结合“资源诅咒”传导机制并通过大量的数据以及案例,对榆林市“资源诅咒”发生的可能性进行了进一步分析,得出以下几点结论：榆林市采掘业的发展抑制了制造业的增长；“挤出效应”存在,采掘业对技术创新、教育挤出严重；榆林市存在着收入分配不均、居民可支配收入较低以及县域经济发展不平衡等问题；产权不清导致竞争的激烈以及生态环境恶化。因此,本文从调整产业结构、增加人力资本积累、优化产权制度、提高GDP含金量以及重视生态环境保护五方面提出了相应的对策建议。榆林资源富集区“资源诅咒”的验证大多集中于理论分析,本文采用多元回归模型对该地区的“资源诅咒”存在性进行实证分析。在对榆林市经济发展中“资源诅咒”产生可能性分析时,除采用常见的“资源诅咒”的传导机制分析之外,还结合当地的具体情况引入了GDP含金量概念,对其进行了验证,使结论更符合当地经济发展实际情况,提出的规避对策更具有针对性。
[Abstract]:The "resource curse" hypothesis shows that rich natural resources hinder the development of the local economy. As a new resource-based city, Yulin is rich in coal, oil and natural gas. From 1998 to 2013, the gross national product of Yulin City grew by nearly 44 times, ranking first in all urban areas of Shaanxi Province, becoming the second largest economic entity to drive Shaanxi's economy. There is no obvious "curse" between natural resource endowment and economic growth in Yulin City. So, will there be a "resource curse" phenomenon in Yulin as a rich region of resources, such as Shanxi and Xinjiang? A growth dilemma after a brief boom? This is the main purpose of this paper. This paper mainly selects the fixed assets investment of extractive industry, the fixed assets investment of manufacturing industry, the workers of extractive industry, the workers of manufacturing industry, the technical cost investment representing the innovation of science and technology, and the investment of education cost of human capital accumulation. Using the multiple regression in econometrics to analyze the relationship between the total import and export of representative system and economic growth. At present, there is no obvious "resource curse" in Yulin City, and the extractive industry can bring positive effects to the economic growth of Yulin City. In addition, in addition to the fixed asset investment and technical cost investment in manufacturing, Other factors have a negative effect on the economic growth of Yulin City. Combined with the transmission mechanism of "resource curse" and through a large number of data and cases, the possibility of "resource curse" in Yulin city is further analyzed. Some conclusions are drawn as follows: the development of mining industry in Yulin City has restrained the growth of manufacturing industry, the existence of "extrusion effect", the serious extrusion of technology innovation and education by extractive industry, the uneven distribution of income in Yulin City, The low disposable income of residents and the unbalanced development of county economy, the fierce competition and the deterioration of ecological environment caused by unclear property rights lead to the adjustment of industrial structure, the increase of human capital accumulation and the optimization of property right system. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the gold content of GDP and pay attention to ecological environment protection. The verification of "resource curse" in Yulin resource rich area is mostly focused on theoretical analysis. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the existence of "resource curse" in this area by using multivariate regression model, and analyzes the possibility of "resource curse" in the economic development of Yulin. In addition to the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the common "resource curse", the concept of GDP gold content is introduced in combination with the local specific conditions, which is verified to make the conclusion more in line with the actual situation of local economic development. The proposed circumvention countermeasures are more targeted.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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