中国城镇居民非住房消费与房价关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 19:43

本文关键词： 财富效应替代效应房价非住房消费　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国房地产市场持续十五年的繁荣发展,房地产逐步成为居民财富构成中的一个重要组成部分；与此同时,中国居民人均消费也在不断增加,但人均消费占人均可支配收入的比重却逐年下降。如何扩大国内消费需求、抑制房价迅速上涨成为近几年中国政府宏观调控的工作重点,而房价对于居民消费的影响是正向的财富效应还是负向的替代效应,也成为学术界研究的重点。本文认为,中国房地产市场的特殊性可能会导致房价对消费影响的方向及大小与其他国家不同,此外不同地区、不同收入水平、不同产权类型、不同年龄、不同教育背景的家庭面对房价的上涨所做出的消费决策也会不同。因此对于房价与消费关系的研究需要从更微观的层面着手。本文首先在生命周期-持续收入假说的基础上,借鉴RCK模型中的消费者跨期最优模型,同时引入交易税费、信息搜集成本、首付比例、保有税费等市场摩擦因素,考察了房价变动对于代表性家庭的非住房消费的影响。然后运用了2002年和2007年的微观截面数据,考察了房价与消费的关系在不同产权类型、不同收入阶层、不同年龄、不同教育水平方面的差异性。最后运用2002-2012年35个城市的面板数据,考察了房价与消费的关系在不同地区、不同时期方面的差异性,补充了微观截面数据关于时间轴和地域轴的不足。此外在分析过程中还加入了消费习惯因素,考察了房价变动通过消费的棘轮效应对下一期消费造成的影响。基于上述理论模型和实证结果,本文认为：房价的上涨一方面对有住房家庭的非住房消费具有促进作用,住房财富的消费弹性系数为0.08-0.09。收入越高的家庭,财富效应越明显；随着家庭年龄的上升,财富效应呈现倒U型趋势；受教育年限越长的家庭,财富效应明显；随着时间的延续,房价的财富效应呈现小幅下降趋势；高等消费区的财富效应最为明显。另一方面对租房家庭的非住房消费具有负向影响,随着房价的上涨,这种抑制作用越来越大；高等消费地区的替代效应最为显著。此外,消费习惯使得消费在受到外界刺激后波动持续的时间更长；当交易环节成本上升(如增加交易税、交易市场信息不充分)、房贷政策收紧,而保有环节成本下降时,房价变动带来的消费的波动程度也会加剧。
[Abstract]:With the continuous prosperity and development of China's real estate market for 15 years, real estate has gradually become an important part of the composition of residents' wealth. At the same time, the per capita consumption of Chinese residents is also increasing. However, the proportion of per capita consumption to per capita disposable income has declined year by year. How to expand domestic consumption demand and curb the rapid rise of house prices has become the focus of the Chinese government's macroeconomic regulation and control in recent years. The impact of house prices on residents' consumption is a positive wealth effect or a negative substitution effect, which has become the focus of academic research. The particularity of China's real estate market may lead to different directions and sizes of the impact of house prices on consumption, in addition to different regions, different income levels, different types of property rights, and different ages. Families with different educational backgrounds will make different consumer decisions in the face of rising house prices, so the study of the relationship between house prices and consumption needs to be carried out from a more micro level. Based on the hypothesis of lifecycle and continuous income, this paper draws lessons from the intertemporal optimal model of consumers in RCK model, and introduces market friction factors, such as transaction tax, information collection cost, down payment ratio, retention tax and so on. This paper examines the influence of the change of house price on the non-housing consumption of representative households, and then uses the microscopic cross-section data of 2002 and 2007 to investigate the relationship between house price and consumption in different property types, different income classes, different ages, and so on. Finally, using the panel data of 35 cities from 2002 to 2012, we investigate the relationship between housing prices and consumption in different regions and different periods. In addition, the consumption habit factor is added to the analysis process, and the effect of house price change on the next consumption through the ratchet effect of consumption is investigated. Based on the above theoretical model and empirical results, this paper holds that: on the one hand, the rise of house prices can promote the non-housing consumption of families with housing, and the consumption elasticity coefficient of housing wealth is 0.08-0.09. The higher the income, the more obvious the wealth effect; With the increase of family age, the wealth effect shows an inverted U-shaped trend; the longer the family is educated, the more obvious the wealth effect is, and with the extension of time, the wealth effect of house prices shows a small downward trend. The wealth effect in higher consumption areas is the most obvious. On the other hand, it has a negative impact on non-housing consumption of rental households. With the rise of house prices, this inhibition effect is becoming greater and greater; the substitution effect in higher consumption areas is the most significant. In addition, Consumption habits make consumption fluctuate longer after being stimulated by the outside world; when transaction costs rise (such as increased transaction taxes, insufficient information in the trading market, tighter mortgage policies, and lower retention costs), The fluctuation of consumption brought about by changes in house prices will also increase.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

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