财政支出和金融发展对经济增长的影响:非线性效应与关联机制

发布时间：2018-02-22 01:19

本文关键词： 财政支出金融发展经济增长　出处：《财贸研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于中国1990—2014年的动态面板数据,运用系统GMM估计就财政支出和金融发展对经济增长的影响进行实证分析,得出三个基本结论:一是财政支出和经济增长之间存在显著的"倒U型"关系,当地方政府的财政支出占GDP的比例低于25%时,增加财政支出可以促进经济增长,反之则会削弱经济增长;二是金融发展对经济增长的影响同样存在显著的"倒U型"效应,当金融发展水平(信贷/GDP)低于130%时,金融发展水平的提高可以促进经济增长,反之则会削弱经济增长;三是在经济相对发达的沿海地区,市场化的金融手段可以更好地促进经济增长,而在经济相对落后的内陆地区,由于金融发展水平相对滞后,经济增长更多地依赖财政投入。
[Abstract]:Based on the dynamic panel data of China from 1990 to 2014, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of fiscal expenditure and financial development on economic growth by using systematic GMM estimation. Three basic conclusions are drawn: first, there is a significant "inverted U" relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. When the proportion of local government fiscal expenditure to GDP is less than 25%, increasing fiscal expenditure can promote economic growth. On the contrary, economic growth will be weakened; second, the impact of financial development on economic growth also has a significant "inverted U" effect. When the level of financial development (credit / GDP) is lower than 130%, the improvement of financial development level can promote economic growth. On the contrary, economic growth will be weakened; third, in coastal areas with relatively developed economies, market-oriented financial instruments can better promote economic growth, while in inland areas with relatively backward economies, the level of financial development is relatively lagging behind. Economic growth depends more on financial input.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“中国农村环境治理效率实证研究”(41401202)
【分类号】：F812.45;F832;F124.1

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