中国碳排放影响因素的空间分解分析

发布时间：2018-02-24 22:01

本文关键词： LMDI 碳排放空间分解分析能源强度能源结构产业结构　出处：《中国地质大学学报(社会科学版)》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用LMDI方法对30个省区2000—2012年的碳排放变化进行空间分解分析。结果发现,研究期间内全国碳排放量增长近2倍,其中工业部门增量占比最高,交通运输和仓储邮政业、批发零售和住宿餐饮业占比快速上升。经济规模的迅速扩大是推动碳排放量增长的主导力量。2006年之后,能源强度尤其是工业能源强度的持续下降极大地抑制了全国碳排放。由于中、西部地区省份的经济增长较快,全国经济的省区分布结构变化使得碳排放有所增加。随着工业部门产值份额的下降,产业结构变化促进了碳减排。此外,能源结构也导致碳排放略有上升。本文认为,进一步提高能源使用效率以及优化产业结构和能源结构是未来控制碳排放的重点,同时不同省区应根据自身实际情况落实碳减排任务。
[Abstract]:The spatial decomposition analysis of carbon emissions in 30 provinces and regions from 2000 to 2012 was carried out by using LMDI method. The results showed that the carbon emissions in China increased nearly twice during the period of study, in which the industrial sector accounted for the highest proportion, transportation and storage and post industry. The share of wholesale, retail and residential restaurants is rising rapidly. The rapid expansion of the economy has been the leading driver of carbon emissions growth. After 2006, The continued decline in energy intensity, especially industrial energy intensity, has greatly curbed carbon emissions across the country. Due to the rapid economic growth in the central western provinces, With the decrease of the share of industrial output value, the change of industrial structure promotes carbon emission reduction. In addition, the energy structure also leads to a slight increase in carbon emissions. Further improvement of energy use efficiency and optimization of industrial structure and energy structure are the key points of controlling carbon emissions in the future, and different provinces and regions should implement the task of reducing carbon emissions according to their own actual conditions.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院;中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目“绿色发展战略与政策模拟研究”(JJ06_2015_SCX_00116) 国家社会科学基金青年项目“跨区域碳减排的技术经济优化路径及政策研究”(13CJY009)
【分类号】：X321;F124

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