碳排放约束下山东省产业结构调整研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 01:06

本文关键词： 碳排放产业结构投入产出法模糊综合评价法　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候问题已经成为全球最大的环境问题。二氧化碳等温室气体排放对全球气候模式产生影响,给人类的生产和生活带来严峻挑战。2011年中国以31亿吨的二氧化碳排放总量跃居全球碳排放首位,作为负责任大国,中国确定了到2020年单位GDP温室气体排放比2005年下降40%—45%的行动目标。在明确了我国的碳减排目标后,减排指标必然要在产业间进行分配。只有分配合理,才能保证减排任务的完成。由于各产业之间关系错综复杂,单纯的限制高排放产业,发展低排放产业虽然一定程度上可以减少碳排放,但很有可能导致经济结构失衡,最终拖累整个经济。因此产业结构调整时应该考虑环境因素,但又不能完全只考虑环境因素,应该把经济因素与环境因素结合起来共同作用于产业结构的调整。从产业结构角度探讨碳排放强度问题,有利于正确判断和把握影响碳排放量变化的产业因素,有效制定控制碳排放的产业发展政策。作为东部沿海地区的一个经济大省,2011年山东省国内生产总值45429.2亿元,总量仅此于广东、江苏,在全国排名第三,然而由于山东省传统高耗能行业占工业比重较大,经济增长过分依赖能源资源的消耗,山东省也成为我国二氧化碳排放增速最快的省份,约占中国排放总量的9%,面临着严重的节能减排压力。同时,山东省产业结构也面临的严重的挑战,重工业比重大,能源结构不合理,产业结构的资源转换效率低,都是造成山东省碳排放比广东和江苏还高的一个重要原因。本文从产业经济学视角出发,以山东省为研究对象,使用模糊综合评价模型,在传统的产业规模、关联度、技术指标基础上加上碳排放这一环境指标来共同确定产业结构调整的方向。首先运用投入产出法来计算山东省排放量,本文的碳排放量包含能源消耗产生的碳排放、工业生产过程中碳排放以及出口贸易中隐含碳。其次,以碳排放量作为环境约束型指标与产业规模、关联度、技术等三个指标共同作用,对山东省29个产业部门作出排序,并与只有产业规模、关联度、技术三个指标的排序作出对比,可以看出有碳排放指标时煤炭开采和洗选业、石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业和化学工业等重工业部门排名大幅度下滑,而仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业和通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等第三产业和高科技行业排名大幅度上升。最后,根据山东省29部门排名对比情况,对山东省产业结构调整提出发展思路和对策,通过制定和实施产业政策,能够有效地支持高新技术产业和第三产业的成长壮大,有秩序、低成本地实现产能落后和污染型衰退产业的撤退和调整,从而加速产业结构的合理化与高度化,促进经济持续健康发展。
[Abstract]:Climate has become the world's biggest environmental problem. Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, have an impact on global climate patterns. In 2011, with 3.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, China ranked first in global carbon emissions, as a responsible big country. China has set an action target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005. After defining China's carbon emission reduction targets, emission reduction targets must be allocated among industries. Only the allocation is reasonable. In order to ensure the completion of the task of reducing emissions, because of the complex relationship between industries, the development of low-emission industries can reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent, but it is likely to lead to an imbalance in the economic structure, although the development of low-emission industries can reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent. The final drag on the entire economy. Therefore, environmental factors should be taken into account in industrial restructuring, but environmental factors should not be fully taken into account. It is necessary to combine economic factors with environmental factors in the adjustment of industrial structure. It is helpful to correctly judge and grasp the industrial factors that affect the change of carbon emissions from the angle of industrial structure. Effectively formulate industrial development policies to control carbon emissions. In 2011, as a large economic province in the eastern coastal region, Shandong Province had a gross domestic product of four tillion five hundred and forty-two billion nine hundred and twenty million yuan, the total amount of which was only in Guangdong and Jiangsu, ranking third in the whole country. However, because Shandong Province has a large proportion of traditional high-energy-consuming industries in industry, Economic growth is excessively dependent on the consumption of energy resources, and Shandong Province has become the fastest growing province of China's carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for about 9 percent of China's total emissions, facing serious pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction. The industrial structure of Shandong Province also faces serious challenges, such as the heavy industry has a large proportion, the energy structure is unreasonable, and the resource conversion efficiency of the industrial structure is low. This paper, from the perspective of industrial economics, takes Shandong Province as the research object, uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, in the traditional industrial scale, the correlation degree, Carbon emission is added to the technical index to determine the direction of industrial structure adjustment. Firstly, the input-output method is used to calculate the emissions of Shandong Province. The carbon emissions in this paper include the carbon emissions from energy consumption. Carbon emissions in industrial production and implied carbon in export trade. Secondly, taking carbon emissions as an environmental constraint index and three indicators of industrial scale, correlation degree and technology, the author makes a ranking of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. Compared with the ranking of only three indicators, namely industrial scale, correlation degree and technology, it can be seen that coal mining and cleaning industry, petroleum processing and coking industry and nuclear fuel processing industry have carbon emission targets. Heavy industry sectors, such as metal smelting and calender processing and chemical industries, fell sharply, while instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing and communications equipment, The third industry and high-tech industries, such as computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries, have risen by a large margin. Finally, according to the comparative situation of the 29 departments in Shandong Province, the development ideas and countermeasures for the adjustment of the industrial structure of Shandong Province are put forward. By formulating and implementing industrial policies, we can effectively support the growth and expansion of high-tech industries and the tertiary industry, and achieve the withdrawal and adjustment of backward production capacity and pollution-type declining industries in an orderly and low-cost manner. So as to accelerate the rationalization of industrial structure and high-level, promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F205;F127;F121.3

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