消费金融对中国城镇居民消费行为的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 01:12

本文关键词： 消费金融城镇居民消费流动性约束不确定因素　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国主要靠投资拉动经济,但近几年,投资与出口发展遇到瓶颈,“三驾马车”的平衡需要消费的提升来保持。政府已将扩大内需、促进居民消费的理念提至国家战略的角度。消费金融正是一种满足消费者跨期消费计划,激发居民消费需求,拓宽当期消费市场的金融服务方式。随着经济快速发展,中国居民消费结构已从生存型向享受型升级,传统的消费理念逐渐开始转变,未来的消费模式必将升级。此外,中国老龄化问题日趋严重,导致居民储蓄率下降,消费增长是必然趋势。城镇化的不断推进将使现在的农村消费模式提升为城镇消费模式,这无疑会促进居民消费,推动当地消费金融市场发展。可见,消费金融服务在中国有很大发展空间。研究消费金融如何影响中国城镇居民消费行为,对于促进居民消费具有重要的现实意义。本文把中国城镇居民的消费行为作为研究对象,在梳理近现代消费理论发展演变的基础上,明确了中国居民适用的消费理论,结合中国居民消费的实际情况,理论上分析出消费金融影响中国城镇居民消费行为的三种方式：降低不确定因素,减少预防性储蓄；缓解流动性约束,为大件购买提供资金支持,提高耐用品消费水平；降低储蓄压力,提高非耐用品消费水平；然后建立相应的模型,利用省际面板数据分别检验三种方式的作用效果。实证检验表明：消费金融主要通过缓解流动性约束,为居民大件购买提供资金支持,从而提高耐用品消费水平的方式来影响居民的消费行为,另外两种方式在中国的作用效果较小。这主要是由于中国大多数消费信贷是住房贷款,过高的房价导致还贷压力巨大,当期非耐用品消费水平无法提高。另外一个原因是：中国社会保障制度不健全,医疗、教育支出高,居民面临收入和支出的不确定因素较多,消费金融的出现不能降低居民对不确定性的预期。本文最后针对实证检验结果,借鉴国外先进发展经验,为增强消费金融对中国城镇居民消费行为的影响提出了建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has mainly relied on investment to stimulate its economy. However, in recent years, the development of investment and exports has encountered bottlenecks. The balance of the "troika" needs to be maintained by raising consumption. The government will expand domestic demand. Consumer finance is a kind of financial service that satisfies the consumer's intertemporal consumption plan, stimulates the residents' consumption demand, and broadens the current consumer market. The consumption structure of Chinese residents has been upgraded from the survival type to the enjoyment type. The traditional consumption concept has gradually begun to change, and the consumption pattern in the future will surely be upgraded. In addition, the aging problem in China is becoming more and more serious, resulting in a decline in the household savings rate. Consumption growth is an inevitable trend. With the continuous development of urbanization, the current rural consumption pattern will be upgraded to the urban consumption pattern, which will undoubtedly promote the consumption of residents and promote the development of the local consumer financial market. Consumer financial services have great room for development in China. It is of great practical significance to study how consumer finance affects the consumption behavior of Chinese urban residents. On the basis of combing the development and evolution of modern consumption theory, this paper clarifies the consumption theory applicable to Chinese residents, combining with the actual situation of Chinese residents' consumption. This paper theoretically analyzes three ways that consumer finance affects the consumption behavior of Chinese urban residents: reducing uncertainty factors, reducing precautionary savings, easing liquidity constraints, providing financial support for large purchases, and improving the consumption level of durable goods; Reducing the pressure of saving and improving the consumption level of non-durable goods, and then establishing the corresponding model, using inter-provincial panel data to test the effect of the three methods respectively. The empirical test shows that consumer finance mainly by easing liquidity constraints, The way of providing financial support for residents' large purchases, thereby increasing the consumption level of durable goods, will affect the consumption behavior of residents. The other two ways have less effect in China. This is mainly due to the fact that most consumer credit in China is housing loans. The excessive housing prices have led to huge pressure on mortgage repayment, and the current consumption level of non-durable goods cannot be raised. Another reason is that China's social security system is not perfect, the expenditure on health care and education is high, and residents are faced with many uncertain factors of income and expenditure. The emergence of consumer finance can not reduce residents' expectation of uncertainty. Finally, based on the empirical test results, this paper puts forward some suggestions for enhancing the influence of consumer finance on the consumption behavior of Chinese urban residents by referring to the advanced development experience of foreign countries.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F832

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