河北省工业行业碳足迹研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 06:22

本文关键词： 碳足迹系统动力学 Vensim仿真低碳经济　出处：《石家庄经济学院》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前，在应对气候变化的大背景下，作为以低污染、低排放、低能耗为优势特征的经济发展方式，低碳经济正在成为世界各国的经济发展的新趋势。其宗旨是，，通过排放更少的温室气体，更有效地实现经济增长，这能够有力促进高污染、高排放、高能耗的现有发展模式向可持续发展模式的转型。河北省“十二五”规划纲要中提出要着力发展循环经济，强化推进节能减排，逐步淘汰落后产能，单位生产总值能耗、单位生产总值碳排放量和主要污染物排放量等经济发展的约束性指标，完成国家下达的目标要求。2012年，河北省单位GDP能耗排在全国第八位，单位工业增加值能耗和单位GDP电耗亦排在全国前列；全社会能源消耗量中，工业行业的比重占到了70%以上，而且这一比例还在逐年上升。规模以上工业能源消耗总量中，高耗能行业的比重接近90%。河北省的工业占全省经济比重较大，由此带来的经济发展负担较重；如何合理发挥自身优势，降低产业结构等劣势的影响，找到适合河北省低碳经济发展的路径，是一个具有现实意义的理论问题。本文基于发展低碳经济的根本目标，从河北省工业行业的现状出发，运用系统动力学方法，对于河北省工业碳足迹系统进行仿真模拟。主要内容包括：首先，对河北省的工业现状进行系统分析。通过分析发现，近年来，河北省工业行业的能源消费量和碳排放量逐年增加，尤其是高耗能行业，居于各行业之首。其次，利用系统动力学的建模方法，构建河北省工业碳足迹的系统动力学模型，并对模型进行检验。在通过对于模型的验证之后，分别设定三种低碳发展情景，对比其模拟结果，并将适合河北省低碳经济发展的模式界定于情景2和情景3之间。最后，结合系统的模拟结果，针对碳足迹系统的制约因素，从产业优化升级、低碳能源开发、人才技术和财税政策支持等方面，对河北省发展低碳经济提出了对策和建议。
[Abstract]:At present, under the background of dealing with climate change, as an economic development mode characterized by low pollution, low emission and low energy consumption, low-carbon economy is becoming a new trend of economic development in the world. Economic growth can be achieved more effectively by emitting fewer greenhouse gases, which can contribute to the transformation of the existing development model of high pollution, high emission and high energy consumption to sustainable development model. In the outline of the 12th Five-Year Plan of Hebei Province, it is proposed that efforts should be made to develop the circular economy, strengthen the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction, and gradually eliminate backward production capacity and energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product. Binding targets for economic development, such as carbon emissions per unit gross domestic product and emissions of major pollutants, meet the requirements set by the state. In 2012, Hebei Province ranked 8th in terms of energy consumption per unit of GDP in the country. Energy consumption per unit of added value of industry and electricity consumption per unit of GDP are also among the top in the country. The proportion of energy consumption in industrial industries accounts for more than 70% of the total energy consumption in the whole society, and this proportion is still rising year by year. The proportion of high-energy consuming industries is close to 90%. The industry in Hebei Province accounts for a large proportion of the province's economy, resulting in a heavy burden of economic development. How to give full play to its own advantages and reduce the impact of disadvantages such as industrial structure, It is a theoretical problem with practical significance to find a path suitable for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province. Based on the basic goal of developing low carbon economy, this paper uses the system dynamics method to simulate the industrial carbon footprint system of Hebei Province, starting from the present situation of Hebei industrial industry. The main contents are as follows:. First of all, the industrial status of Hebei Province is systematically analyzed. It is found that in recent years, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Hebei industrial industry have increased year by year, especially the high-energy consumption industry, ranking first in all industries. Secondly, using the modeling method of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of industrial carbon footprint of Hebei Province is constructed, and the model is tested. After the verification of the model, three kinds of low-carbon development scenarios are set up respectively. The simulation results are compared and the models suitable for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province are defined between scenario 2 and scenario 3. Finally, based on the simulation results of the system, the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province are put forward from the aspects of industrial optimization and upgrading, low-carbon energy development, talent technology and financial and tax policy support, aiming at the constraints of the carbon footprint system.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄经济学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X322;F124.5;F427

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