核电企业海外投资国家风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-03 12:18

本文选题：核电企业　切入点：海外投资　出处：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经过近30年的发展、研发和创新，，中国已经形成了核工业完整的产业链，掌握了自主知识产权的第三代核电技术，从而具备了走出去的核心能力；同时，我们具有更低的建造成本和服务成本，在核电出口方面具备了很好的基础和后发优势。随着国家核电走出去战略的提出和对于高铁、核电等技术装备走出国门的政策指引，中国核电企业以工程建设、设备制造、技术支持等多元化方式参与国际项目竞争必将进一步提速。有鉴于其他行业海外投资失败的教训，本文选择在中国的核电企业即将扬帆出海之际，在充分研究国内外关于国家风险理论的基础上，借鉴国内外权威评级机构的评估模式和方法，并结合海外核电项目自身特点，提出了核电企业海外投资的国家风险评估框架。框架包括政治风险，经济风险，金融和其他风险三大初级要素，其中政治风险包括投资自由度、政治冲突状况和清廉指数三个次级指标，经济风险包括人均国民收入、海外投资潜力指数和通货膨胀率三个次级指标，金融及其他风险包括政府信用评级、碳排放相关度以及汇率历史波动率三个次级指标。次级指标之间的权重分配按照专家问卷调查以及AHP层次分析法确定。在指标的选取上，既考虑数据颁布机构的权威性，又考虑相应数据的可得性，从而使企业实现国家风险评估成为现实。在此基础上，本文对潜在目标国进行了实测评估，并根据评估结果对不同的潜在目标国给出了相应的策略建议，对核电企业海外投资决策具有一定指导意义。
[Abstract]:After nearly 30 years of development, R & D and innovation, China has formed a complete industrial chain for the nuclear industry, mastering the third generation of nuclear power technology with independent intellectual property rights, thus possessing the core capability to go abroad. We have lower construction costs and lower service costs, and have a good foundation and late-development advantage in the export of nuclear power. With the development of the national nuclear power going out strategy and the policy guidance for high-speed rail, nuclear power and other technical equipment to go abroad, Chinese nuclear power enterprises will participate in international project competition in a variety of ways, such as engineering construction, equipment manufacturing, technical support and so on. In view of the lessons learned from the failure of overseas investment in other industries, this paper chooses to study the national risk theory at home and abroad on the basis of a full study of the national risk theory at home and abroad while the Chinese nuclear power enterprises are about to sail out to sea. Based on the evaluation models and methods of authoritative rating agencies at home and abroad and combining with the characteristics of overseas nuclear power projects, this paper puts forward a national risk assessment framework for overseas investment of nuclear power enterprises. The framework includes political risk and economic risk. Among the three primary elements of financial and other risk, political risk includes investment freedom, political conflict and integrity index, and economic risk includes per capita national income. Three sub-indicators, the overseas Investment potential Index and the inflation rate, and financial and other risks, including government credit ratings, Carbon emission correlation and historical volatility of exchange rate are three sub-indicators. The weight distribution among secondary indicators is determined by expert questionnaire survey and AHP analytic hierarchy process. In the selection of indicators, the authority of data issuing agencies is considered. Considering the availability of the corresponding data, the realization of national risk assessment becomes a reality. On the basis of this, the paper evaluates the potential target country, and gives the corresponding strategic suggestions to different potential target countries according to the evaluation results, which has certain guiding significance for the overseas investment decision of nuclear power enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.23;F426.61;F125

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