浙江省要素投入结构与潜在增长率的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 07:24

本文选题：潜在经济增长率　切入点：生产函数　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1978年以来,浙江省的经济得到了迅猛发展,实现了质的飞跃。这一良好的经济增长态势一直持续到了 2008年间,随着美国金融危机事件席卷了全球经济,浙江省粗放型经济增长方式与实际经济发展的矛盾日益突出,这就迫使浙江省需要通过调整要素投入结构来实现资源最优化配置。本文从要素投入的角度出发,对影响浙江省潜在经济增长率的主要因素和内在结构进行了研究,建立了以劳动力、物资资本、人力资本、知识资本、制度和技术进步为主要影响因素的扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型。本文运用1990-2014年的时间序列数据对各要素投入结构下的要素产出弹性进行了估计,得到了浙江省要素产出弹性在这一时期的变化趋势,测算出了浙江省潜在经济增长率的变化情况。研究表明:第一,在劳动投入结构中,第三产业从业人数占比的提升对劳动产出弹性的正向影响最大,第二产业从业人数占比的提升对劳动产出弹性的正向影响最小,但是总的来说三次产业就业比重对劳动产出弹性影响相差不大;在资本投入结构中,对物质资本产出弹性的正向影响最大的是第三产业的物质投入比重,而第一产业的物质投入比重对物质资本产出弹性产生了最大的负向影响。在知识资本结构中,其他部门比重对知识资本产出弹性的正向影响最大,而另外三个执行部门对知识资本产出弹性的正向影响相差不大。第二,1990-2014年间劳动产出弹性最高,出现微幅下滑趋势,说明劳动产出弹性受到结构变化的影响较小;物质资本产出弹性最低,出现明显上升趋势,说明物质资本产出弹性受到结构变化的影响较大;另外,知识资本产出弹性出现上下波动的情况,但总体表现为上升趋势,呈现出这一原因可能是因为其受到结构变化的影响较大。第三,2008年以来,资本投资效率的显著下降成为了导致潜在经济增长率下降的主要原因,但是,由于知识资产结构的升级,浙江省的潜在经济增长率下滑也在一定程度上得到了缓解。另外,本文估算了要素投入因素对浙江省潜在经济增长的贡献份额占比。研究表明:第一,由于知识资本存量不仅具有高产出弹性,而且也实现了较高的增长率,所以知识资本对浙江省潜在经济增长的贡献份额占比最大,达到了 5.91%;其次,物质资本存量带来了较高的增长率,从而促进了物质资本在浙江省潜在经济增长的贡献份额中仅次于知识资本,达到了 3.12%;在制度变迁和劳动力因素方面,虽然二者的弹性较高,但是其增长率较低、波动的范围较小,导致二者对浙江省潜在经济增长的贡献份额相对较小。第二,物质资本和知识资本贡献率有所下降的趋势,但是知识资本的贡献份额增速却远高于物质资本的贡献份额增速。最后,本文分别从各投入要素的角度提出推进浙江省经济快速、健康、可持续发展的相关策略。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, Zhejiang's economy has developed rapidly and achieved a qualitative leap. This good economic growth has continued until 2008, as the financial crisis in the United States swept the global economy. The contradiction between the extensive economic growth mode and the actual economic development in Zhejiang Province is becoming increasingly prominent, which forces Zhejiang Province to realize the optimal allocation of resources by adjusting the structure of the input of the elements. This paper studies the main factors and internal structure of the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province, and establishes the labor force, material capital, human capital and knowledge capital. The extended Cobb-Douglas production function model, which is mainly influenced by institution and technological progress, is used in this paper to estimate the factors' output elasticity under the input structure of each factor by using the time series data from 1990 to 2014. The change trend of factor output elasticity in Zhejiang Province during this period is obtained, and the change of Zhejiang's potential economic growth rate is calculated. The results show that: first, in the structure of labor input, The promotion of the proportion of the tertiary industry employees has the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of labor output, while the increase of the number of the second industry employees has the least positive impact on the elasticity of labor output. But in general, the proportion of employment in three industries has little effect on the elasticity of labor output. In the structure of capital input, the proportion of material input in the tertiary industry has the greatest positive effect on the elasticity of output of material capital. In the structure of intellectual capital, the proportion of other sectors has the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of output of intellectual capital. The other three executive departments have little positive influence on the elasticity of intellectual capital output. The second is the highest elasticity of labor output from 1990 to 2014, showing a slight downward trend, indicating that the impact of structural changes on the elasticity of labor output is small; The elasticity of physical capital output is the lowest, which shows an obvious upward trend, which indicates that the elasticity of physical capital output is greatly affected by structural changes. In addition, the elasticity of intellectual capital output fluctuates up and down, but the overall trend is upward. Third, since 2008, a significant decline in the efficiency of capital investment has been the main cause of the decline in potential economic growth, but, Due to the upgrading of the structure of knowledge assets, the decline in the potential economic growth rate in Zhejiang Province has also been alleviated to a certain extent. This paper estimates the contribution of factor input factors to Zhejiang's potential economic growth. The results show that: firstly, the stock of knowledge capital not only has high output elasticity, but also achieves a high growth rate. Therefore, the contribution of intellectual capital to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is the largest, reaching 5.91. Secondly, the stock of physical capital has brought about a higher growth rate. As a result, the contribution share of material capital in the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is second only to intellectual capital, reaching 3.12. In terms of institutional changes and labor factors, both of them have higher flexibility, but their growth rate is relatively low. The range of fluctuations is relatively small, resulting in a relatively small share of their contribution to Zhejiang's potential economic growth. Second, the contribution rate of physical and intellectual capital has declined. However, the growth rate of the contribution share of knowledge capital is much higher than that of material capital. Finally, this paper puts forward the relevant strategies to promote the rapid, healthy and sustainable development of Zhejiang economy from the point of view of each input element.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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