治理意外之财:资源丰裕型发展中经济体的最优政策选择

发布时间：2018-03-05 16:21

本文选题：自然资源收益　切入点：意外的公共收益　出处：《经济社会体制比较》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：一国政府在面临自然资源的意外收益,特别是这种收益是可预期的,但同时又是暂时收益时,政府将在以下方面作出选择:如何管理公共债务、投资、针对消费的基金分配等。我们的研究发现在永久收入假说下,在这笔收入产生之前依靠借债维持消费持续增长,然后积累国家财富基金,这种做法对资本稀缺的发展中国家来说,并不是最优的政策选择。这些国家应该通过社会和私人资本的积累去加速发展,只有这笔意外收入远远大于其外部债务时,最优选择才是建立国家财富基金。相对于永久收入假说,消费的最优时间偏向近期。结果取决于政府可以使用的工具。我们将研究以下几种情况:政府可以对消费者进行一次性的转移支付;当转移支付不可行时,政府的最优选择包括降低税收扭曲以提高投资和工资;当李嘉图式的消费者能够借出未来收益,政府针对可能出现的超前消费,可以选择较高的基础设施投资水平。
[Abstract]:In the face of windfall gains from natural resources, especially when they are predictable but also temporary, a government will choose how to manage public debt and invest, Our study found that under the permanent income hypothesis, we rely on borrowing to maintain a sustained increase in consumption before this income is generated, and then accumulate a national wealth fund. This approach is not the best policy option for capital-scarce developing countries. These countries should accelerate development through the accumulation of social and private capital, only when this windfall income far exceeds their external debt. The best option is to set up a national wealth fund. As opposed to the permanent income hypothesis, The optimal time for consumption is in the near future. The result depends on the tools available to the government. We will look at the following scenarios: the government can make a one-time transfer payment to the consumer; and when the transfer payment is not feasible, The government's best option includes reducing tax distortions to boost investment and wages; when Ricardo consumers can lend out future gains, the government can choose higher levels of infrastructure investment for possible overspending.
【作者单位】：牛津大学经济学系;山西大学经济与管理学院;山西省社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“中等收入阶段矿产资源收益的国家治理:基于经济结构非均衡发展的视角”(项目编号:14CJL036)资助
【分类号】：F112.1

【相似文献】