基于RAGA-PPC模型鄱阳湖地区县域交通与经济协调性评价

发布时间：2018-03-10 01:36

本文选题：RAGA-PPC模型　切入点：鄱阳湖生态经济区　出处：《东华理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：区域交通网络系统与经济系统为两个相互依赖、相互作用的复杂巨系统,交通基础设施对区域经济空间格局影响显著,是区域经济发展和空间扩展的主要力量之一;随着中国区域经济一体化进程加速,县域经济发展速度与质量迅速提升,对优质交通网络的需求愈加强烈。如何在竞争激烈的市场环境中,提升自身的竞争优势,维系区域社会经济的可持续发展,是当前发展所面临的重大课题。在这样的背景下探究鄱阳湖生态经济区交通网络发展水平与经济发展水平之间耦合协调发展关系,是认识鄱阳湖生态经济区交通网络设施对区域经济发展支撑和引领能力的基础,也是预防因交通网络设施建设而过多占用本区生产性投资的有效措施,同时也为改善区域交通网络和制订经济发展战略提供参考。本研究以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例,通过构建县域交通优势度与综合经济实力评价指标体系,利用RAGA-PPC模型测度了鄱阳湖生态经济区1995-2015年的交通优势度和综合经济实力,定量分析交通与经济两系统之间耦合协调发展关系在时空序列上的动态变化及规律,依据交通优势度与经济综合实力特征划分两系统不同的耦合协调发展类型,进而对不同耦合协调发展类型的影响因素进行分析,以此提出相应的发展策略。主要结论如下:(1)1995-2015年鄱阳湖地区交通通达性明显改善。两两城市间2h以内到达的地区从23.44%,提升至66.24%,提升幅度为182.59%,大大缩短了鄱阳湖地区间的时间距离,区域内通达性水平得到明显改善,而高等级交通干线的建设,成为提升鄱阳湖地区通达性的主要因素。(2)鄱阳湖地区交通优势度从双核结构模式,逐渐演变成将南昌市区作为“核心”的单核结构模式。1995-2013年交通优势度表现出高值集聚分布的现象,交通优势度高值地区在空间上邻接、集中成块状分布在南昌市区、九江市区及周边地区,整体呈现出以地级市区向边缘城市逐渐降低的“中心-边缘型”空间分布格局,并初步形成了南昌市区为“主核”,九江市区为“次核”的双核结构态势;2015年区域内首条高速铁路通车运营,对提升南昌市区在鄱阳湖地区区位优势、交通优势效果非常显著,打破了原有的双核结构模式,逐渐演变成将南昌市区作为“核心”的单核结构模式。高速铁路不仅促进了南昌市区经济的快速增长,也带动了鄱阳湖地区产业结构的调整与经济转型的步伐。(3)1995-2015年鄱阳湖地区综合经济实力不断增强,但地区间空间差异依然显著,时间特征上则表现为先减后增的规律。区域内经济发展增速较快,各地区综合经济实力均获得了较大幅度的增长,但县域综合经济实力差异依然明显,相对差异最大值存在于地级市区间,最低值出现在京九铁路沿线、浙赣铁路沿线和皖赣铁路沿线周边地区;4个年份区域综合经济实力的极差分别为0.8765、1.4556、1.9907和2.437,同比增加1.7、1.4和1.2倍,变异系数分别为0.6091、0.4883、0.2791和0.3172,其增长速率分别为-19.83%、-42.84%和13.65%,表明全区差异在不断的加大,但增加幅度有所减缓,差异变化的时间特征表现为先减后增的规律。(4)鄱阳湖地区县域交通优势度与综合经济实力之间为交互耦合的关系,耦合协调发展度系数呈螺旋上升趋势。从时间角度上来看,4个年份耦合协调度指数均值提升明显,分别为0.49、0.72、0.81、0.83,其中行政县逐渐成为区域内耦合协调度最高的行政单元,而地级市区之间耦合协调性最差;而相对发展度呈现出逐年降低的趋势,地级市区相对发展指数始终低于1,这说明鄱阳湖地区交通优势度与综合经济实力耦合协调作用明显增强,但随着经济的高速发展,交通滞后经济发展的情况愈加凸显。从空间角度上来看,4个年份耦合协调发展度在空间上表现出显著的正相关关系,高值地区成块状分布于南昌市区周边,冷点地区大都为交通与经济发展均欠发达或协调性较差地区。而相对发展度仅1995年存在高值聚集于南昌市区周边,冷点区和次冷点区成点状分布于边沿地区,其余3个年份未表现出高值集聚分布的现象,这说明鄱阳湖地区交通优势度与综合经济实力在相互依赖、彼此促进的发展历程中协同性及相互适应性较差。(5)1995-2015年鄱阳湖地区交通优势度与综合经济实力耦合协调类型由分布于拮抗、磨合和协调三个不同阶段的8类缩减为2类,即处于磨合阶段磨合阶段的景德镇市区和协调阶段的30个地区,然而处于协调阶段大部分地区仍处于交通滞后经济发展状态,交通依然是阻碍鄱阳湖地区经济发展主要原因之一。最后从地形因素、区位优势、城镇化水平、区域产业结构和区域经济联系等影响鄱阳湖地区交通与经济协调发展五个重要因素进行分析,并针对不同的耦合协调类型提出相应的发展策略。
[Abstract]:Regional traffic network system and economic system into two interdependent, interaction of complex giant system, the influence of traffic infrastructure on regional economic spatial pattern is significant, is one of the main force of regional economic development and spatial expansion; with the regional economic integration to accelerate the process of China, county economic development speed and quality of high quality is improved rapidly, traffic network the increasingly strong demand. How in the fierce competition in the market environment, enhance their competitive advantage and maintain the sustainable development of regional economy, is a major issue faced by the current development. In this background of coupling between traffic network ecological economic zone in Poyang Lake development level and the level of economic development coordinated development relations, understanding based on the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake traffic network facilities to support and lead the regional economic development ability, but also the prevention of traffic network Effective measures of network infrastructure and occupy more productive investment in this area, but also for the improvement of the regional traffic network and provide reference to formulate the strategy of economic development. Based on the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake as an example, through the construction of evaluation and comprehensive economic strength of the county traffic advantage index system, using the RAGA-PPC model to measure the ecological and economic zone Poyang Lake 1995-2015 years of transportation advantage degree and the comprehensive economic strength, dynamic changes of quantitative analysis of coupling between transportation and economy coordinated development between two system in time and space sequence and law, based on the traffic advantage of comprehensive strength and economic characteristics of the Division of the coordinated development of two different types of coupling system, and the influencing factors of different types of coupling coordination development the analysis, put forward the corresponding development strategy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1995-2015 years of traffic in Poyang Lake area was significantly improved. 22 inter city 2H within reach areas from 23.44%, increased to 66.24%, increase 182.59%, greatly shorten the time distance between the Poyang Lake area, accessibility level within the region has been significantly improved, and the high grade highway construction, become the main factor to promote the Poyang Lake area as the traffic advantage of Poyang Lake (2). From the area of dual core structure model, and gradually evolved into Nanchang city as the ".1995-2013 single core structure model of the core" traffic dominance showed high values of agglomeration and distribution of high value area traffic dominance in space adjacent, concentrated into a block distribution in Nanchang City, Jiujiang city and surrounding areas, showing the whole the distribution pattern in prefecture level city to the edge of the city is gradually decreasing, center edge space, and formed the Nanchang city as the main core, Jiujiang city as the "nuclear" dual core The structure of situation; 2015 in the region's first high-speed railway traffic operation, to promote the Nanchang city in the Poyang Lake area, geographical advantages, transportation advantages effect is very significant, breaking the dual core structure of the original, and gradually evolved into Nanchang city as the "single core structure model of the core". High speed railway has not only promoted the rapid growth of Nanchang economy. Also promote the industrial structure adjustment of Poyang Lake and the pace of economic restructuring. (3) 1995-2015 years in Poyang Lake comprehensive economic strength has increased, but still significant spatial difference between regions, the time characteristics showed first decreased and then increased. The rule of economic growth within the region rapidly, the comprehensive economic strength of the region are obtained a substantial increase, but the difference of integrated strength of county economy is still obvious, the maximum relative difference exists in the city range, the lowest value appeared in the Beijing Kowloon Railway Along the Zhejiang Jiangxi railway and Anhui Jiangxi railway surrounding area; range 4 years regional comprehensive economic strength were 0.8765,1.4556,1.9907 and 2.437, an increase of 1.7,1.4 and 1.2 times, the variation coefficient was 0.6091,0.4883,0.2791 and 0.3172 respectively, the growth rate was -19.83%, -42.84% and 13.65%, showed that the difference in the constant increase, but the increase has slowed down, the time difference is characterized first decrease and then increase law. (4) interactive coupling between Poyang Lake regional transportation superiority and comprehensive economic strength, coupled coordination degree coefficient spiral trend. From the time point of view, the 4 year average index significantly enhance the coupling coordination degree that was 0.49,0.72,0.81,0.83, which has gradually become the administrative county area administrative unit couplingcoordination degree is the highest, and the coupling coordination between prefecture level city Poor; and the relative development degree showed a decreasing trend, prefecture level city development index is always less than 1, indicating that the degree of traffic advantage in Poyang Lake area and the comprehensive economic strength coupling coordination effect is significantly enhanced, but with the rapid development of economy, traffic lag of economic development is increasingly prominent. From the spatial point of view, 4 coordination the development of the year coupling in space showed a significant positive correlation, high value area block in the outskirts of Nanchang City, cold region mostly for transportation and economic development in underdeveloped areas or poor coordination. While the relative degree of development in 1995 alone there are high value gathered in the outskirts of Nanchang City, the cold spots and once the cold spots dotted in the edge area, the other 3 years did not show high value centralization phenomenon, which shows the degree of traffic advantage in Poyang Lake area and the comprehensive economic strength in mutual dependence , coordination and mutual adaptability development and promote each other. (5) 1995-2015 years of traffic of Poyang Lake area. And the comprehensive economic strength of coupling coordination type in antagonized by distribution, running and coordination of the three different stages of the 8 class cut into 2 categories, namely the 30 regions in the running stage during running in the downtown area of Jingdezhen and the coordination stage, but in most areas is still in the stage of coordinated transportation lags behind the economic development, traffic is still one of the main reasons hindering the development of the regional economy of Poyang Lake. Finally the location from the terrain factors, advantages, the level of urbanization, traffic and economic coordination of regional industrial structure and regional economic ties on the Poyang Lake area development of five important factors, and put forward the corresponding development strategies for the coordination of different types.

【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F512.7

【参考文献】