“效率抵消总量”假说及不同空间尺度上以水资源为例的验证

发布时间：2018-03-14 02:44

本文选题：可持续发展　切入点：“效率抵消总量”假说　出处：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过研究经济发展、资源利用效率和资源消耗总量之间的关系,尤其是对资源利用效率的提升如何抵消由经济增长引发的资源消耗总量的上升的探究,提出“效率抵消总量”假说,并对其概念、公式、图示、推导和关键等方面进行了详细论证,从一个新的视角诠释了经济发展和资源消耗之间的关系。 “效率抵消总量”假说通过论经济产值和资源利用效率之间的变化组合情况,探究了9种不同情境下自然资源消耗总量的变化情况,明确了研究的最重要情境——经济增长,资源利用效率提升的目标情境。通过数学推演和情境分析等方法,探究经济产值、资源利用效率和自然资源消耗总量三者之间的关系,得到实现自然资源消耗总量不增长的“拐点”公式。为了分清“拐点”背后资源利用效率和经济产值的变化以及各自对达到“拐点”的贡献量,重点研究了不同情境下由资源利用效率和经济产值变化导致的自然资源消耗量的变化的表达式,并分析了对应情境下到达“拐点”的贡献者。在此基础上,对一般“拐点”和实现“效率抵消总量”状态的“拐点”进行区别,着重探讨经济增长、资源利用效率提升情境下达到“效率抵消总量”状态时资源利用效率的提高对达到“抵消”状态的贡献量。鉴于水资源的不可替代性及重要的生态价值和经济价值,在工业用水领域,选取工业增加值、万元工业增加值用水量和工业用水量三个指标,对一个城市(上海)、一个发展中国家(中国)、一个发达国家(美国)和全球这四个不同尺度的空间单位对“效率抵消总量”假说进行了验证,找到他们各自的“拐点”,并计算不同“拐点”背后资源利用效率和经济发展各自对其的贡献量,分析了“抵消”状态及其出现的可能原因,得到不同的结论。对于效率提升、经济增长的目标情境进一步分析发现,在理论上要想达到“抵消”状态,需要满足效率的提升率大于经济的增长率。如果能一直保持效率的提升率大于经济的增长率,则就可以实现在目标情境下彻底跨过“拐点”,处于“效率抵消总量”的状态。 “效率抵消总量”假说尚处于发展和完善阶段,因此,本文对于假说及其应用做了进一步的讨论,包括指标的选择、推导的过程、图形的表示、验证的结果、应用的领域等方面,为“效率抵消总量”假说的完善和接下来的研究方向提供了参考。本文研究得到教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“节水型社会建设研究”(项目批准号：11JZD024)的支持,部分相关研究成果以《Model of Resources Utilization Efficiency Counteracting Total Quantity and Relevant Empirical Study》和《Model of Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency and Relevant Empirical Study on Water Resources》为题,分别在EAAERE2013Congress和EAAERE2014Congress会议上进行报告。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between economic development, resource utilization efficiency and total resource consumption, especially how the improvement of resource utilization efficiency counteracts the increase of total resource consumption caused by economic growth. This paper puts forward the hypothesis of "total amount of efficiency offset", and demonstrates the concept, formula, diagram, derivation and key aspects in detail, and explains the relationship between economic development and resource consumption from a new angle of view. The hypothesis of "efficiency offset aggregate" discusses the change and combination of economic output value and resource utilization efficiency, probes into the change of total consumption of natural resources under nine different situations, and clarifies the most important situation-economic growth. Through mathematical deduction and situational analysis, the relationship among economic output value, resource utilization efficiency and total consumption of natural resources is explored. The formula of "inflection point" is obtained to realize the non-growth of the total consumption of natural resources. In order to distinguish the change of resource utilization efficiency and economic output value behind the "inflection point" and their respective contribution to the "inflection point", This paper focuses on the expression of the change of natural resource consumption caused by the change of resource utilization efficiency and economic output value in different situations, and analyzes the contributors who reach the "inflection point" in the corresponding situation. This paper makes a distinction between the general "inflection point" and the "inflection point" of realizing the "efficiency offsetting aggregate" state, with emphasis on the discussion of economic growth. The contribution of the improvement of resource utilization efficiency to the state of "cancelling the total amount of efficiency" under the situation of improving the efficiency of resource utilization. In view of the irreplaceable and important ecological and economic value of water resources, in the field of industrial water use, three indexes, industrial added value, ten thousand yuan industrial added value water consumption and industrial water consumption, are selected. The hypothesis of "total efficiency offset" is tested on four different scales: a city (Shanghai), a developing country (China), a developed country (United States) and the world. The paper finds their respective inflection points, calculates the resource utilization efficiency behind different inflection points and the contribution of economic development to them, analyzes the state of "offset" and its possible causes, and draws different conclusions. With regard to efficiency improvement, further analysis of the target situation of economic growth reveals that, in theory, it is necessary to achieve a state of "offset". If the rate of improvement of efficiency is higher than the rate of growth of economy, then we can completely cross the "inflection point" and be in the state of "total amount of efficiency offset" in the target situation. Therefore, the hypothesis and its application are discussed in this paper, including the selection of indicators, the process of derivation, the representation of graphs, the results of verification. The field of application provides a reference for the improvement of the "efficiency offset aggregate" hypothesis and the future research direction. The research is supported by the key research project of philosophy and social science of the Ministry of Education, "study on Water-saving Society" (Project Grant No.: 11JZD024). Some of the related research results were presented at EAAERE2013Congress and EAAERE2013Congress respectively under the title of < Model of Resources Utilization Efficiency Counteracting Total Quantity and Relevant Empirical Study > and < Model of Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency and Relevant Empirical on Water Resources >.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5;TV213.4

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