我国保险发展与居民消费增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 23:26

本文选题：保险发展　切入点：消费增长　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改变经济增长模式，，扩大内需是我国未来经济发展的重要推动力。目前，中国一方面面临居民储蓄存款超高且不断增加的局势；另一方面，老百姓又将钱袋子捂得很紧，不愿意增加消费。对于这种特殊的现象，一种普遍的观点认为，由于人民收入水平的增加滞后于医疗、教育、住房和养老等预期支出水平，居民增加储蓄多出于预防性目的。保险作为一种经济补偿制度，不仅能够实现规避风险的目的，还能实现自身财富的合理分配。同时，保险作为一种互助方式，较储蓄具有更大的资金放大效应。因此，保险在很大程度上可以替代预防性储蓄。大力发展保险业，可以有效减少消费者的谨慎性储蓄，优化居民财富配置，有助于保障居民消费的长期稳定，是拉动国内消费的有效手段。基于此，本文采用了理论论述与实证检验相结合的研究方法，对我国保险发展与居民消费增长的相关关系进行了详细的分析，并确定了二者之间的作用机制。对文章结构的安排上，首先在引言的部分介绍了本文研究的相关背景，通过对国内外相关文献的评述，引出论文的研究意义。在理论分析部分，本文首先对相关概念进行了介绍，并在阐述西方经典消费理论和保险职能及性质的基础上，结合我国目前的消费特点和保险业发展现状，理论分析了我国保险发展和消费增长二者之间的作用路径。在实证检验部分，本文选取了2006-2013年我国的保险深度和社会消费品零售总额的季度数据，根据处理后的数据序列建立了向量误差修正模型，对我国保险发展与消费增长的关系进行了实证检验。通过对检验结果的分析，最终得出结论：保险发展对消费增长有明显的促进作用，我国发展保险业是有效启动内需、推动经济的有效手段，而消费增长对保险发展的作用不明显。最后基于所得出的结论，在本文结尾部分对我国如何应该如何发展保险业提出了相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Changing the pattern of economic growth and expanding domestic demand is an important driving force for China's future economic development. At present, on the one hand, China is facing a situation where residents' savings deposits are high and increasing; on the other hand, the common people are keeping their pockets tight. A general view of this particular phenomenon is that the increase in people's income lags behind the expected levels of expenditure such as health care, education, housing and old-age care, and that the increase in household savings is mostly for preventive purposes. As an economic compensation system, insurance can not only achieve the purpose of avoiding risks, but also realize the rational distribution of its own wealth. At the same time, as a mutual aid, insurance has a greater capital amplification effect than savings. To a large extent, insurance can replace precautionary savings. By vigorously developing the insurance industry, we can effectively reduce the prudent savings of consumers, optimize the distribution of residents' wealth, and contribute to ensuring the long-term stability of residents' consumption. It is an effective means to stimulate domestic consumption. Based on this, this paper uses the research method of combining theoretical discussion and empirical test to analyze in detail the relationship between the development of insurance and the growth of resident consumption in China. The mechanism of action between the two is determined. On the structure of the article, first of all, the introduction introduces the background of this study, through the review of the relevant literature at home and abroad, leads to the significance of the research. In the theoretical analysis part, This paper first introduces the relevant concepts, and on the basis of expounding the western classical consumption theory and the function and nature of insurance, combined with the current consumption characteristics and the current situation of insurance development in China. Theoretical analysis of our country's insurance development and consumption growth between the role of the path. In the part of empirical test, this paper selects the quarterly data of insurance depth and total retail sales of consumer goods in China from 2006 to 2013, and establishes a vector error correction model according to the processed data sequence. This paper makes an empirical test on the relationship between the development of insurance and the growth of consumption in China. Through the analysis of the results of the test, it concludes that the development of insurance plays a significant role in promoting the growth of consumption, and that the development of insurance industry in China is an effective way to start domestic demand. The effective means to promote the economy, but the effect of consumption growth on the development of insurance is not obvious. Finally, based on the conclusions drawn, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to develop the insurance industry in our country at the end of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842;F126.1

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