我国股票市场与经济增长的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 13:00

本文选题：股票市场　切入点：经济增长　出处：《国际关系学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“股票市场是国民经济的晴雨表”,本文以此为出发点,研究我国股票市场与经济增长的相关性。通过研究发现,股票市场具有筹集资金、分散风险、优化资源配置、信息揭示、改善公司治理结构等功能,从而可以通过提高储蓄-投资转化率、居民储蓄率、资本产出率以及科技进步和创新来推动经济增长;同时,当经济增长时,人均收入提高、居民需求提高、宏观经济环境优化,从而带动股票市场规模增大、结构更为完整、法律法规等配套制度建设更完善。从近现代我国股票市场发展历史来看,我国股票市场起源于清末时期,在新中国建国初期接受了旧有市场后,由于政治原因而遭到停摆。在改革开放后,特别是以上海证券交易所成立为标志直到现在,我国股市得到了充足且迅速的发展。而纵观每一阶段,我国股票市场对经济增长都作出了相当的贡献。在实证方面,本文选取了相关指标,分别作了一般回归分析、对股权分置改革前后股市的回归分析,以及向量自回归模型进行分析,结果表明我国股票市场和经济增长确有相关性且符合理论预期,但是显著性较弱。进一步探究相关性较弱的原因,可能在于我国股市本身运行机制有缺陷、监管力度不够以及政府干预过多。为了使股票市场能更有效地促进经济增长,我们应该加强金融顶层设计、跟进配套制度建设以及逐步完善市场运营漏洞。
[Abstract]:"The stock market is a barometer of the national economy, this article as a starting point, study on the correlation between stock market and economic growth in China. Through the study found that the stock market is to raise funds, risk diversification, optimize the allocation of resources, improve the information disclosure, corporate governance structure, which can improve the rate of savings into investment, the household savings rate, capital output ratio and technological progress and innovation to promote economic growth; at the same time, as the economic growth, per capita income of residents increased, increasing demand, optimizing the macroeconomic environment, so as to drive the stock market size increases, the structure is more complete, laws and regulations supporting system more perfect. From the development of history in modern times China's stock market, the stock market of our country originated in the late Qing Dynasty, in the early years after the founding of new Chinese accepted the old market, due to political reasons and was shut down in the reform. After the opening, especially with the establishment of the Shanghai stock exchange as a symbol until now, China's stock market has been developing rapidly. The sufficient and throughout each stage, China's stock market has made a considerable contribution to economic growth. In the empirical analysis, this paper selects the index, respectively. The general regression analysis points before and after the reform of the stock market return of shares, and the vector auto regression model, the results show that China's stock market and economic growth is a correlation and consistent with theoretical expectations, but significantly weaker. To further explore the related reasons of weak, may lie in China's stock market operation mechanism itself has defects, excessive and inadequate supervision government intervention. In order to make the stock market can be more effective in promoting economic growth, we should strengthen the financial supporting system of top-level design, follow up and gradually improve the market operation Loophole.

【学位授予单位】：国际关系学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F124.1

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