人民币汇率、FDI与我国产业结构的非线性效应——基于MS-VAR模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 16:34

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：FDI　出处：《商业研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：近年来,人民币汇率变动对外商直接投资(FDI)流入和我国产业结构调整的影响日趋显著。本文运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型,实证分析2004-2016年人民币汇率变动通过FDI路径对中国产业结构调整的非线性影响效应。研究结果表明:人民币汇率变动对中国产业结构的影响依赖经济周期具体阶段而呈现出两区制特征,其中区制1、区制2分别代表经济状态波动平缓区制和经济状态波动剧烈区制,并且不同区制下变量间具有不同的动态关系。脉冲响应函数的结果显示,区制1中人民币升值促进了FDI流入,推动了产业结构优化升级,区制2中则相反,并且两区制下FDI流入对产业结构调整均发挥了积极作用,但区制2中的响应程度明显大于区制1。因此,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,避免人民币汇率波动幅度过大,增加FDI流入,有助于推动我国产业结构的优化升级。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the effect of RMB exchange rate change on FDI inflow and industrial structure adjustment in China has become more and more significant. In this paper, the Markov region system transfer vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model is used. This paper empirically analyzes the nonlinear effect of RMB exchange rate change on China's industrial structure adjustment through FDI path from 2004 to 2016. The results show that the impact of RMB exchange rate change on China's industrial structure depends on the specific stage of the economic cycle. And presents a two-zone system. The region system 1 and region 2 represent the economic state fluctuation region system and the economic state fluctuation area system respectively, and there are different dynamic relations between the variables under the different region system. The result of pulse response function shows that, The appreciation of RMB in region 1 promotes the inflow of FDI and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, whereas in region 2, the inflow of FDI plays a positive role in the adjustment of industrial structure. However, the response degree in region 2 is obviously greater than that in regional system 1.Therefore, keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable at the reasonable equilibrium level, avoiding the excessive fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and increasing the inflow of FDI, It helps to promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【作者单位】：河海大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部重点支持领域科研专项资助项目“江苏省科技进步与产业结构优化升级相互作用关系研究”,项目编号:20116B31914
【分类号】：F121.3;F832.6

【相似文献】