基于联立方程与状态空间模型对中国经济增长与环境污染关系的研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 15:30

  本文选题：经济增长　切入点：环境污染　出处：《管理评论》2016年07期

【摘要】：大多数对经济增长与环境污染的研究仅关注经济对污染的单向作用忽视了污染对增长的反向影响,导致环境库兹涅茨曲线形态的多样性。为全面考察二者之间的双向影响及动态关系,本文基于中国2000-2014年各省市的面板数据,首先用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)估计联立方程组模型考察中国的环境库兹涅茨环境曲线的形态,然后采用状态空间模型进一步分析经济增长与环境污染之间的动态相关关系。实证结果表明工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP之间的关系均符合环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线,各污染物对经济增长影响的方向与程度不尽相同。并且环境污染和经济增长动态相关性研究表明,2012年之后污染对经济增长的弹性上升,而经济增长对污染的弹性下降,表明近年来我国污染物控制取得了良好效果,环境保护和经济增长的协调性增强。
[Abstract]:Most studies of economic growth and environmental pollution focus only on the one-way effects of the economy on pollution, ignoring the negative impact of pollution on growth. In order to investigate the bidirectional influence and dynamic relationship of environmental Kuznets curve, this paper is based on the panel data of provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2014. First, the three-stage least square method (3SLS) is used to estimate the model of simultaneous equations to investigate the shape of the environmental curve of China's environmental Kuznets. Then the dynamic correlation between economic growth and environmental pollution is analyzed by using the state space model. The empirical results show that industrial wastewater emissions, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions, The relationship between industrial solid waste production and per capita GDP is in accordance with the environmental Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve. The relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth shows that the elasticity of pollution to economic growth increases after 2012, while the elasticity of economic growth decreases. The results show that the control of pollutants in China has achieved good results in recent years, and the coordination between environmental protection and economic growth has been enhanced.
【作者单位】： 河南大学应用经济学博士后流动站;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(14CTJ007) 河南省博士后资助项目(2015057)
【分类号】：F124;X22

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