陕西省产业结构与经济增长质量相关性的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 11:39

本文选题：陕西省　切入点：产业结构　出处：《西安财经学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：一个国家和地区对于的经济增长的追求已经不能仅仅停留在数量方面的扩张了，高质量的经济增长过程应该伴随着数量的增长和质量的提高，二者是相辅相成的。研究产业结构对经济增长质量的影响，是对经济增长质量理论的完善和发展；尤其是结合我国当前的发展目标、“十二五”规划的要求以及建设社会主义和谐社会的总体要求，更突出了研究经济增长质量的重要性和必要性。本文通过运用统计分析方法中的主成分分析法和计量经济学中的时间序列分析的方法，采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法，对陕西省的产业结构调整做了定性和定量的分析，既丰富了经济增长理论，又为陕西省加快产业结构调整、优化产业结构提供了参考。本文重点部分是对陕西省的产业结构和经济增长质量的相关性进行实证分析，通过分析，从整体趋势来看，陕西省在这20年的经济增长质量出现了逐渐降低的趋势。通过分析陕西省的产业结构，在三大产业比重方面，陕西省目前还处在“二三一”的模式，今后应该努力向“二三并重”的产业模式发展。从产业结构背后的二元经济结构来看，陕西省的二元比对系数近几年有了上升的趋势，但与标准值“1”的差距还比较大，表明在二三产业发展的背后依然隐含着低效率的农业生产，二元结构并没有缓和。从三大产业比较劳动生产率也可以看出，陕西省三大产业比较劳动生产率的差距有缩小的趋势，说明二元经济结构已经开始被重视了，，农村剩余劳动力开始向城市转移，今后应该继续推进农业的现代化建设，合理利用农村剩余劳动力，缩小二元差距。从陕西省产业结构趋同和内部制约可以看出，陕西省内各地级市之间缺乏行之有效的产业合作的发展规划，这也是制约陕西省经济健康发展的重要障碍。通过多部门结构变动对产出贡献的测度方法，可以得出陕西省产业结构的调对经济增长质量的影响高于全国平均水平。通过计量分析，可以得出在1992-2011年，影响陕西省经济增长质量的产业指标主要是第二产业比较劳动生产率。陕西省的经济增长还依赖着第二产业来促进，这就会在一定程度上制约着经济增长质量的提高。
[Abstract]:The pursuit of economic growth in a country and a region can no longer be confined to the expansion of quantity. The process of high quality economic growth should be accompanied by the increase in quantity and quality. To study the influence of industrial structure on the quality of economic growth is to perfect and develop the theory of quality of economic growth. In particular, in the light of China's current development objectives, the requirements of the 12th Five-Year Plan and the overall requirements for building a harmonious socialist society, The importance and necessity of studying the quality of economic growth are highlighted. By using principal component analysis (PCA) and time series analysis (TSA) in econometrics, this paper adopts the method of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of industrial structure adjustment in Shaanxi Province not only enriches the theory of economic growth, but also provides a reference for Shaanxi Province to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and optimize industrial structure. This paper focuses on the empirical analysis of the correlation between the industrial structure and the quality of economic growth in Shaanxi Province. The quality of economic growth in Shaanxi Province has gradually decreased in the past 20 years. By analyzing the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province, Shaanxi Province is still in the mode of "two three one" in terms of the proportion of the three major industries. In the future, efforts should be made to develop the "two-to-three" industrial model. From the perspective of the dual economic structure behind the industrial structure, the binary ratio coefficient of Shaanxi Province has been on the rise in recent years, but the gap with the standard value "1" is still quite large. It shows that behind the development of the secondary and tertiary industries there is still a low efficiency of agricultural production, and the dual structure has not eased. From the comparison of labor productivity among the three major industries, it can also be seen that, The gap between the three major industries in Shaanxi Province in terms of labor productivity has tended to narrow, indicating that the dual economic structure has begun to be attached importance to, that the surplus rural labor force is beginning to transfer to cities, and that the modernization of agriculture should continue to be promoted in the future. From the convergence and internal restriction of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province, we can see that there is no effective development plan for industrial cooperation among prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi Province. This is also an important obstacle to the healthy economic development of Shaanxi Province. It can be concluded that the adjustment of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province has a higher impact on the quality of economic growth than the national average. Through econometric analysis, it can be concluded that in 1992-2011, The industrial index that affects the quality of economic growth in Shaanxi Province is mainly the comparative labor productivity of the secondary industry, and the economic growth in Shaanxi Province still depends on the promotion of the secondary industry, which will restrict the improvement of the quality of economic growth to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：西安财经学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F121.3

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