亚太区域经济一体化与两岸共同参与策略选择

发布时间：2018-03-25 22:02

本文选题：两岸　切入点：RCEP　出处：《宁夏社会科学》2017年02期

【摘要】：亚太区域经济合作是世界经济全球化的重要组成部分,以FTA为代表的经济一体化是未来亚太区域经济合作发展的主流和方向。中国大陆与台湾同处亚太生产网络的关键环节,但相比中国大陆,台湾FTA进展缓慢,基本被排除在亚太主要FTA之外。运用GTAP模型,以RCEP和中日韩FTA为例,模拟分析了亚太两大FTA贸易自由化对两岸经济的影响。研究发现,包括台湾在内的非成员,无论GDP增长、社会福利还是贸易条件等,均受到两大FTA不同程度的负面影响,尤其是两大FTA同时实现贸易自由化,台湾受损程度更为严重。在当前两岸互信不足情况下,只有联合中国大陆共同参与亚太区域经济合作,才是台湾拓展"国际经济空间"和避免被"边缘化"的根本出路。
[Abstract]:Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation is an important part of the world economic globalization. The economic integration represented by FTA is the mainstream and direction of the future development of Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation. However, compared with mainland China, Taiwan's FTA progress is slow, and it is basically excluded from the major FTA in the Asia-Pacific region. Using the GTAP model, taking RCEP and FTA of China, Japan and South Korea as examples, this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the two major FTA trade liberalization on the cross-strait economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Non-members, including Taiwan, whether GDP growth, social welfare, or terms of trade, are all adversely affected by the two major FTA to varying degrees, especially when the two FTA realize trade liberalization at the same time. Under the current situation of lack of mutual trust between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, only the joint participation of China and mainland China in Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation is the fundamental way out for Taiwan to expand its "international economic space" and avoid being "marginalized."
【作者单位】：工业和信息化部国际经济技术合作中心;中国国际贸易促进委员会电子信息行业分会;对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“亚太主要区域贸易协定的生产网络效应与中国对策研究”(项目编号:14BGJ046) 教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目“全球价值链视角下的两岸产业合作研究”(项目编号:13YJAGAT001)
【分类号】：F114.4

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