外债余额的决定因素和债务可持续性分析为东帝汶发展的借鉴和启示

发布时间：2018-03-26 19:30

本文选题：外债　切入点：余额　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：这项研究是分析外债余额与GDP之比的决定因素。我们研究学习四个独立变量(外债对出口比率,进口对GDP比率,财政收支占GDP比率,现今价格下的国家GDP)来分析他们如何影响发展中国家和发达国家外债余额水平。在此论文中我们分析影响外债余额的要素,表现为2012年跨越115个国家的GDP的数据比。我们用普通最小二乘法来估计模型,也发现影响一个国家债务的最重要因素是进口对GDP的比值,它表明较高的进口占GDP比值的国家在其它因素不变下可以寻求更多的贷款。另一方面,债务对出口的比率是另一个显著指标,表现为一个国家债务对出口比率越高,偿还债务的能力越低,因此债务会不断增加。财政收支占GDP的比例表明,预算赤字占GDP比例越高的国家越有可能去贷款。在研究结果基础上我们建议,为了减轻外债余额,发达国家和发展中国家的目标都应是进出口代替战略。通过开放世界贸易,他们将增加出口从而赚取硬通货,也能够专攻于国际市场贸易。他们更容易偿还债务,也可能减少外债的需求,即使他们借债了,也能及时还债。此外,我们注意到研究中存在固有的宏观经济变量数据的限制,显示于数据的局限性,导致产生一些看似不起眼的独立变量(已从模型中移除),这需要进一步研究。为进一步研究我们建议计入一个变量来评估“机构和政策的质量”,相信它能更好地解释各个国家发展的不同阶段并能体现他们解决偿还债务的能力。笔者个人支持东帝汶政府采取贷款的政策,只要管理得当,确保及时还债,有效地进行资本性支出(投资),而不是在目前的支出(消费)。鉴于东帝汶巨额贸易逆差,巨额财政赤字,机构及政策的薄弱性,国家应小心管理其债务,以便在未来能够通过它赚取投资回报并偿还债务。鉴于以上弱点,若所贷的款可以高效投入,具有较高的GDP年增长率能够使未来的高额回报更有希望,反过来又可以帮助私营企业的投资,维持国家经济及社会的长期发展。丰富的自然资源(石油和天然气)也将有助于资助促进(或保证)国家经济持续发展。
[Abstract]:We studied four independent variables (the ratio of external debt to exports, the ratio of imports to GDP, the ratio of fiscal revenue to expenditure to GDP). In this paper, we analyze the factors that affect the external debt balance of both developing and developed countries. We use the ordinary least square method to estimate the model, and we find that the most important factor that affects a country's debt is the ratio of imports to GDP. It shows that countries with a higher ratio of imports to GDP can seek more loans without changing other factors. On the other hand, the debt-to-export ratio is another significant indicator, as shown by the higher debt-to-export ratio of a country. The lower the ability to repay the debt, the higher the debt. The ratio of fiscal revenues to GDP suggests that countries with higher budget deficits as a percentage of GDP are more likely to lend. On the basis of the findings, we recommend that, in order to reduce the external debt balance, The goal of both developed and developing countries should be import and export substitution strategies. By opening up world trade, they will increase their exports to earn hard currency, and they will be able to specialize in international market trade. They will be easier to service their debts. It is also possible to reduce the demand for external debt, even if they do so, in a timely manner. In addition, we note the inherent limits of macroeconomic variable data in the study, which is illustrated by the limitations of the data, This has led to the emergence of seemingly insignificant independent variables (removed from the model, which require further study.) for further study, we propose to include a variable to assess the "quality of institutions and policies", which is believed to be better. Explain the different stages of development in each country and reflect their ability to pay their debts. I personally support the policy of loans adopted by the Government of Timor-Leste. As long as it is properly managed, it ensures timely repayment of debt and effective capital expenditures (investment, rather than current expenditure) (consumption)... in view of Timor-Leste 's large trade deficit, large fiscal deficit, and weak institutions and policies, A country should carefully manage its debt so that it can earn a return on investment and repay its debt in the future. In view of the above weaknesses, if the funds lent can be invested efficiently, a higher annual growth rate of GDP can make future high returns more promising. In turn, it can help private investment and sustain the country's long-term economic and social development. Rich natural resources (oil and gas) will also help finance the promotion (or guarantee) of sustained national economic development.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F813.46;F134.6

【相似文献】