中国存在古德温周期吗

发布时间：2018-03-28 11:19

  本文选题：古德温模型　切入点：捕食者模型　出处：《社会科学研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：依次选择中国宏观经济、中国城镇经济、上海和广东等地区工资份额、就业率在1978-2014年的数据检验古德温周期,结果表明,在此期间,宏观经济某些时段呈现出就业率和工资占比此消彼长现象,而在城镇经济中这一表现更为显著,上海和广东的个例也显示这种现象显著存在,从而验证了本文的初始假设:理论上而言,在市场化程度较高的时间阶段和地区,资本-劳动的雇佣越是普遍,古德温周期的动力机制表现也应该更为明显,古德温周期的显著程度构成对市场化程度的另一种解答。同样有意义也有待进一步研究的问题在于,在某些时段中,工资占比和就业率并未出现明显的此消彼长态势,甚至呈现同步增长现象。从古德温模型本身看,就业率与工资占比的波动性和振幅的差异性,正是需要对长时段内影响宏观经济的其他因素进行考究的方面。
[Abstract]:In turn, China's macro-economy, China's urban economy, Shanghai and Guangdong were selected to test the Goodwin cycle in 1978-2014. The results show that, during this period, In some periods of the macro-economy, the employment rate and the proportion of wages have been increasing and decreasing, but in the urban economy, this phenomenon is even more obvious. The examples of Shanghai and Guangdong also show that this phenomenon exists significantly. Therefore, the initial hypothesis of this paper is that, in theory, the more common the employment of capital-labor is, the more obvious the dynamic mechanism of Goodwin cycle should be in the time and region with a high degree of marketization. The significance of the Goodwin cycle constitutes another answer to the degree of marketization. Equally significant and subject to further study is the fact that, in some periods of time, the share of wages and the employment rate do not show a significant downward trend. From the Goodwin model itself, the volatility and amplitude difference between employment rate and wage ratio is the aspect that needs to be studied on the other factors that influence the macro economy in a long period of time.
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本文编号：1676108